By James Wright

As Bob Dylan sang, "It ain't no use to sit and wonder why, babe, if you don't know by now." Pondering whether or not the U.S. economy is in a recession yet, as many financial experts are now doing, may be a waste of time. As one seafood industry veteran recently told me flat-out, "If Warren Buffett says we're in a recession, we're in a recession." But you don't have to be the world's richest man to see the impact the flagging economy is having on consumers' food choices.

If the economy worsens, consumers may forego dining out just to fill their gas tanks and keep the lights on. Eating at home is one way consumers can save money; foodservice operators would be wise to watch their pennies as well. Although seafood is getting more expensive, along with most other foods, there's plenty of ways to keep it on the menu and, with its healthful profile, demand for seafood should stay high.

It will be an interesting summer for seafood consumption. A recession may actually benefit the hospitality industry, as the United States becomes a more attractive tourist destination (the struggling U.S. dollar has a lot to do with that). One attendee of last week's European Seafood Exposition in Brussels, Belgium, told me that on the return trip stateside, the plane was loaded with non-English speaking travelers heading west. Hopefully they've got a hankering for lobsters and softshell crabs.

Tourist dollars may not be enough, though, and some restaurant segments may struggle, like family restaurants in rural areas (especially if gasoline hits $4 a gallon). On the other hand, well-established, upscale restaurants in larger cities should do well, because those who have money will still spend it. While no business is totally recession-proof, a commitment to quality products and services is a long-range strategy that always makes sense.

I might, however, sing a different tune if wild Alaska salmon fillets reach $40 a pound, we see a repeat of last spring's outrageous lobster prices and even tilapia prices continue to rise. But the diversity of the category provides many opportunities to experiment with new species and new dishes - at lower price points - to keep customers coming back.

Thank you,
James Wright
Assistant Editor
SeaFood Business