Donald Trump campaigned on a policy of aggressive tariffs intended to spur manufacturing in the United States and strengthen U.S.-based supply chains. Now that he’s been elected, some business groups are expressing concerns about how such changes would affect American industries.
National Retail Federation (NRF) Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold told SeafoodSource the proposed tariffs are likely to pass major costs on to American consumers, who are already suffering from record inflation post the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Throughout the campaign President Trump has talked about tariffs in a variety of different ways: as a negotiating tactic for other countries, as a means to bring production back to the U.S., and as a means to replace income tax and pay for tax bills,” Gold said. “You can talk about a variety of different reasons for tariffs, but I think the most important thing for folks to understand is that a tariff is a tax that is paid by the U.S. importer, and it leads to price increases.”
Other business leaders have corroborated Gold’s prediction on prices, including Walmart CFO John David Rainey. Rainey told CNBC on 19 November that he expected some prices to go up if Trump’s proposed tariffs went into effect. Though the company reported record profits, Rainey said that “there will probably be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”
Others, like AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele, said that consumers should prepare for prices to go up even before tariffs go into effect.
“If we get tariffs we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” Daniele said.
Though Trump did put some tariffs into effect during his first presidency, they were largely directly at raw materials, like aluminum and steel, which enter the production process long before individual consumers come into the picture. This focus on what are known as economic inputs likely lessened the effect of previous tariffs on individual consumers. Inflation Insights founder Omair Sharif told the NY Times, “these are not things you go out and buy at Home Depot on the weekend.”
The tariffs which Trump proposed during his 2024 campaign, however, would affect what are known as economic outputs: the actual products individual consumers buy.
“It’s not at all clear that this is going to be anything like it was the last time around,” Sharif said.
Some of the tariffs imposed during the last Trump administration did impact the seafood industry, especially when China placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. seafood. While many producers, processors, and importers in the seafood industry told SeafoodSource that it was simply too early to say anything definitive about what to expect, they did say the earlier trade war prepared them for whatever comes.
The National Fisheries Institute said it is optimistic that it will be able to champion the industry under the new administration, however, saying that it was “evaluating the new administration’s plans and are eager to work with them to ensure seafood is a priority.”
Massachusetts-based Channel Fish Processing, which recently won a number of government contracts to supply fish and seafood products to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, acknowledged that that it was “closely monitoring the new presidential administration’s tariff discussions, which will significantly impact our business, especially for core species like cod and haddock that are already facing limited global supply due to total allowable catch reductions and geopolitical issues.”
“We rely on the National Fisheries Institute to guide us through these policy changes,” Channel President Tom Zaffiro said. “Their dedicated team supports us and keeps us informed, allowing us to make sound business decisions. With 78 years of experience and the help of the NFI, we are confident in our ability to navigate these challenges.”
Ultimately, Zaffiro said, the global upheaval of the last few years has prepared Channel to weather change.
“The last round of tariffs and global supply issues from Covid-19 have already pushed us to …
