Global seafood demand per capita will continue to grow through 2050, with production growing exponentially to meet that demand, according to the “Seafood Forecast” compiled by Norwegian risk management and assurance firm Det Norske Veritas (DNV).
The firm’s latest report analyzes the interactions between seafood value chains and other food systems, between food security and growing supply-demand imbalances across different regions, and between the need for sustainable feed and the need for a robust food supply. It forecasts an increase in overall marine seafood production – incorporating all farmed and wild-caught finfish, crustaceans, and mollusks – of about 20 percent by 2050.
Specifically, the Norwegian firm expects annual seafood production to reach 160 million metric tons (MT) by the midpoint of this century, with the fisheries sector producing 101 million MT when including illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing output and a marine animal aquaculture sector that nearly doubles its production to 59 million MT.
DNV also projects that in 2050, when the world’s population is expected to eclipse 9 billion people, seafood demand per capita will be highest in Southeast Asia, and marine and freshwater seafood will account for more than 30 percent of total protein consumption.
Despite rising consumer demand for seafood, DNV doesn’t believe there will be any significant changes in protein consumption patterns or large-scale dietary shifts to the category from other food groups.
DNV’s Group Research and Development Program Director of Ocean Space Bente Pretlove told SeafoodSource the analysis points to total protein demand climbing 33 percent through 2050, with meat demand increasing 30 percent.
“Hence, there is little reason to conclude that there will be a general dietary shift toward seafood globally,” she said. “There are large regional differences; for instance, in Europe, meat consumption will go down, whereas fish consumption will go up. In Latin America, meat consumption [is expected to go] up much more than fish consumption.”
Pretlove said that there will be difficulties scaling up land-based food production to meet global demand, with climate change being the leading obstacle. She said a future consumer shift toward a more seafood-based diet could relieve some of this pressure, but added that large shifts like these are slow-moving processes influenced by affordability, food culture, and other consumer preferences.
Nevertheless, given a sufficient change in demand, expanding marine aquaculture represents a significant worldwide opportunity, and DNV predicts stagnant output in capture fisheries but doubled aquaculture production and tripled finfish production in this period to 23.2 million MT annually, which would see the category overtake mollusks as the single biggest species group produced when measured in live weight.
“This means that species types with higher edible yields win out (e.g., you can eat a larger percentage of a fish than of an oyster). But, finfish need feed, which puts additional pressure on land-based agriculture,” Pretlove said.
She expects the “main winners” among aquaculture species are likely to be high-value species like salmon and shrimp.
While DNV doesn’t model exact outlooks for specific species, its report slated 12 percent of finfish aquaculture to come from onshore facilities using recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) and similar new technologies by 2050 and another 7 percent to come from offshore structures in the open ocean.
At the same time, it suggests crustacean farming will double, reaching 13 million MT annually, and mollusk farming will grow 25 percent to 17.5 million MT.
To meet future growth, the sector must maintain an intense focus on fish health and welfare, technological innovation, and sustainability measures, Pretlove said.
In this regard, DNV said a key priority will be to meet the demand for feed ingredients by decoupling it from sources of food for human consumption. Its study anticipates the share of novel ingredients, such as single-cell proteins, insect meal, and algal oil, will rise from negligible levels today to reach 26 percent of the ingredient mix for feed for marine finfish and 37 percent of the mix for crustaceans.
Conversely, the combined share of fishmeal and fish oil in feed will decrease from 18 percent – the level recorded in 2020 – to 9 percent in 2050. Plants will remain the largest source of ingredients by volume, but the share will fall from 66 percent to 50 percent over the same time frame.
As for seafood trade patterns, DNV’s report said there will be some shifts over the next quarter of a century, and these changes will be mainly driven by increasing supply-demand imbalances in capture fisheries. It forecasts trade will grow faster than production, which implies a greater dependence on imports.
By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa will be the biggest seafood importer due to declining regional capture and fast-growing food demand, and Europe will be the leading exporter of marine seafood to this region, as well as to the Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, Latin America will be the largest exporter of marine aquaculture products, including finfish and crustaceans, with North America as its main market.
One hiccup to this increase in trade, according to Pretlove, is that certain types of seafood could become unaffordable to consumers in particular regions, including sub-Saharan Africa.
“While they will consume more seafood on average and even import from regions where wild catches rise due to warmer waters, there probably still will be large consumer groups with low affordability,” she said.
Mainly referencing Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, DNV estimates the overall seafood industry was worth more than USD 350 billion (EUR 323.2 billion) in 2020 and that the global trade in fish and other aquatic resources amounted to around USD 113 billion (EUR 104.4 billion). This represented more than 9 percent of the global trade in agricultural products and more than 2 percent of the global commodities trade.
Looking ahead to 2050, DNV said it expects finfish to maintain its position as the most preferred seafood item, with the demand accounting for about 70 percent of the total market for seafood products produced from marine waters. Southeast Asia will remain the largest market for finfish, while Greater China will continue to be the largest market for both crustaceans and mollusks and, hence, the leading market for about 24 percent, or 37 million MT, of the marine seafood harvested globally.
Pretlove said that while DNV also doesn’t model short-term price dynamics, it does forecast production costs for finfish, crustaceans, and mollusks. As such, it estimates costs will likely rise for wild-caught fish, particularly in regions where there are declines in catch due to climate change, overfishing, and other stressors.
“On the other hand, some aquaculture segments, like new farming systems, will see falling costs or relatively flat cost developments. Assuming the same average price of products for simplicity and the 20 percent overall production growth, the industry will be worth around USD 420 billion [EUR 387.9 billion] in 2050,” she said.
Photo courtesy of Alexander Raths/Shutterstock
