Global consumption of seafood will continue to grow over the next decade but at a slower rate, largely due to a projected softening of Asian demand, according to a new report.
“Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032,” a collaborative report between the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, aims to serve “as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning,” focusing on a decade that the two organizations predict could raise serious global food security concerns.
The report projects fish and shellfish consumption to reach 21.2 kilograms per capita over the next decade, up from a 20.4-kilogram average between 2020 and 2022.
According to the research, seafood consumption will increase per capita across all continents except Africa, where it projects a decline from 9.8 kilograms – the rate of consumption between 2020 and 2022 – to 9.6 in 2032, with a larger decrease in Sub-Saharan Africa in particular.
However, the OECD and FAO said the decline in African consumption will be relatively small compared to the decline in growth the two organizations project for Asian consumption.
The projected slowdown in Asia reflects the already high per-capita fish consumption levels in the region, as well as increased competition from meat products –including a recovery for pork, which has suffered recently from low consumption in China.
The report also highlights the impact of Chinese policy changes toward more sustainable fishery practices, higher fuel costs, and the assumption that 2024, 2028, and 2032 will suffer from El Niño weather patterns that will result in lower production, mainly in Latin America and the Caribbean, as influencing factors on the deceleration of consumption.
Overall demand, though, will continue to grow, albeit at a slowed rate, and to meet rising demand global production will increase by 12 percent in the 10-year period through 2032, reaching 202 million metric tons (MT). Seafood produced for human consumption is slated to increase by 14 percent to reach 182 million MT – expanding on all continents. Over the previous decade, total production increased 22 percent.
Most future production increases are likely to stem from Asia, which will account for more than 70 percent of the global total by 2032. The largest contributors to this growth are likely to be China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
By 2032, the report forecasts aquaculture production will account for 55 percent of total fish production, mainly due to productivity gains and technological improvements related to spatial planning, breeding, feed, and disease management.
The report also forecasts that up to 96 percent of additional seafood production will stem from aquaculture, with total aquaculture harvests reaching 111 million MT by 2032 – an increase of 22 percent, or 20 million MT, compared to the 2020 to 2022 time frame.
On average, the capture fisheries sector will provide about 92 million MT of products annually over the next decade, a rise of 1 million MT over the previous decade, with lower levels in projected El Niño years.
“Growth in capture fisheries production is expected to come largely from improved fisheries management, from technological improvements, and [the] reduction of discard and waste,” the report stated. “The bulk of production will originate from Asian countries, which share in world capture fisheries is expected to rise slightly to 53 percent by 2032.”
The report also suggests the fisheries and aquaculture sectors could face significant uncertainties over the coming decade.
“Capture fisheries production and related prices might be impacted by the recently concluded negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on fisheries subsidies, but also by improved fisheries management,” the report said. “Climate change represents a source of both environmental and regulatory risk for the capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Finally, Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine and the related sanctions will continue to impact fish trade given Russia’s position as an important capture fisheries producer.”
The OECD and FAO believe that Asia, and to a lesser extent Europe, will drive export increases, with Asia accounting for 51 percent of total trade compared to 47 percent between 2020 and 2022. Exports from Africa, Oceania, and the Americas are likely to decline by 2032, the report states, reflecting the slowdown in production growth across these continents and the assumed El Niño weather patterns in the case of the latter continent.
By 2032, exports of fish for human consumption are likely to reach around 44 million MT.
The E.U., the U.S., and China will remain the top three seafood importers, but while inbound volumes for the E.U. and U.S. markets will increase, Chinese imports are likely to decrease by 21 percent by 2032 due to the country’s efforts to meet increasing food demand through domestic production.
Overall, the world trade of seafood for human consumption is projected to be 5 percent higher in 2032 than it was in the 2020 to 2022 time frame, which is half the 10-percent growth observed in the previous decade.
High transportation costs, slower production expansion, and a desire to fulfill domestic demand with local production in some key countries, including China, are the main drivers of this predicted slowdown.
Photo by Chris Chase/SeafoodSource
