Raw material prices in Vietnam’s pangasius sector have risen steadily in recent months, largely due to strong export demand and tight supply.
The sales value of Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached about USD 214 million (EUR 190 million) in September, up 18.6 percent year over year, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP). Shipments over the first nine months of 2026 totaled around USD 1.74 billion (EUR 1.55 billion), up 10.7 percent from the same period last year.
As export demand increased, Vietnam produced an estimated 496,200 metric tons (MT) of pangasius in the third quarter of 2026, up 3.3 percent year over year, bringing output over the first nine months to just over 1.4 million MT, marking 4.4 percent growth.
Though production has grown, supply has still been tight, leading to rising raw material prices.
Data from the agriculture sector in Vinh Long province show pangasius prices quoted by processing companies at VND 34,000 to VND 35,000 (USD 1.31 to USD 1.35, EUR 1.16 to EUR 1.20) per kilogram on 5 October, nearly 20 percent higher than in early August.
VASEP data for neighboring Dong Thap, another major pangasius-producing province, show a similar trend. The price for pangasius sized 0.7 kilograms to 1 kilogram rose by more than 6 percent from early September to the end of the month, reaching VND 32,000 to VND 34,000 (USD 1.23 to USD 1.31, EUR 1.10 to EUR 1.16) per kilogram during the week of 26 September to 2 October.
Fingerling prices rose sharply over the same period.
Pangasius fingerlings sized 30 to 35 fish per kilogram rose by more than 20 percent from early September, totaling VND 55,000 to VND 68,000 (USD 2.12 to USD 2.62, EUR 1.88 to EUR 2.33) per kilogram from 26 September to 2 October.
Siam Canadian Vietnam Sales Manager Le Thuy Trang told SeafoodSource that prices recently reported by the company’s packers had increased from around VND 33,000 (USD 1.27, EUR 1.13) per kilogram in late August to approximately VND 36,500 (USD 1.40, EUR 1.25) per kilogram in September – the highest level the firm had seen so far this year.
Despite stronger selling prices, higher production costs have limited profits.
A source at a Vietnamese aquafeed company estimated farmer profits at around VND 4,000 (USD 0.15, EUR 0.14) per kilogram, broadly aligning with estimates from the National Statistics Office, but said the margin remained relatively modest given current input costs.
The source estimated that fingerlings alone currently account for around VND 8,000 to VND 10,000 (USD 0.31 to USD 0.38, EUR 0.27 to EUR 0.34) of the cost of producing each kilogram of harvested fish, rising to as much as VND 12,000 (USD 0.46, EUR 0.41) per kilogram in some cases.
Meanwhile, Trang said mortality can reach rates as high as 60 percent due to several factors, including weak fingerling quality and unfavorable weather conditions, while higher feed costs have added further pressure to production costs.
A current shortage of harvest-size fish partly reflects conditions experienced during the previous production cycle, according to both sources.
Trang explained that high fingerling prices and heavy losses during the previous crop led farmers to stock their ponds at lower densities, reducing the number of fish available for harvest now.
That impact is now being felt by processors.
“We are seeing a shortage of harvest-size fish, especially the smaller and medium sizes needed,” Trang said, describing a current gap between two crops, where the previous crop largely cleared the market as the next crop has yet to reach harvest size.
At the same time, some farmers are keeping fish in ponds longer to produce larger sizes for the Chinese market, which mainly buys fish 10 ounces and larger, particularly ahead of Lunar New Year, Trang said.
She said Siam Canadian is seeing demand for year-end shipments, with some buyers urgently looking for stock.
“Raw material shortages have delayed shipments, even where orders are already confirmed,” she said.
Raw material availability could begin to improve from around mid-November onward, when fish from the new crop start reaching harvest size, based on feedback Siam Canadian has received from packers.
Smaller sizes may remain tight, though, as some farmers continue holding fish longer to reach the larger sizes preferred by the Chinese market.
Trang expects raw material prices to stay high through December, driven by year-end shipments and demand ahead of Lunar New Year.
