While most Alaska salmon fishermen are just starting to prowl the docks and get their boats and nets ready, the season got off to its official start on Thursday, 16 May, amidst a fairly strong statewide forecast.
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game forecasts fishermen across the state will land around 213 million fish in the next six months, which would far exceed last season’s harvest of just 115.7 million, a number that came up 31.6 million fish short of ADF&G’s 2018 prediction.
While 2018 totals were undermined by a low pink run, especially in Southeast Alaska, this season’s numbers are bolstered by a robust pink forecast, a species that typically runs in larger numbers on odd years. Prince William Sound is expected to have an especially strong pink run, with a harvest of more than 66 million fish, while Southeast may again come up well short of odd-year averages, with an expected harvest of under 20 million fish. Total pink harvest for all districts is forecast at nearly 138 million fish, although the ADF&G a “great deal of uncertainty in predicting pink salmon returns.”
Southeast fishermen, however, could be propped up for a second straight year of strong returns on hatchery chum salmon, with an estimated catch of over 17 million hatchery chums and more than 20 million total.
Meanwhile, Bristol Bay numbers are expected to return to earth on the heels of the largest run ever in 2018, which saw 62.3 million sockeye run, yielding a harvest 41.1 million fish. After three straight seasons of huge runs, the world largest sockeye fishery is forecast to return to closer to historical averages, with a run of 40.18 sockeye and a harvest of more than 26 million fish.
While the market for Alaska salmon is strong across the board, analysts think the market for Bristol Bay sockeye will remain particularly strong, buoyed by plateauing farmed salmon numbers that fetch high enough prices to keep wild prices up. Price predictions are tricky, but after ex-vessel prices sat at USD 1.25 (EUR 1.12) a pound last season, with some processors paying out nearly USD 2.00 (EUR 1.79) after incentives. Rumors for 2019 are that base prices will start over USD 1.00 (EUR 0.90) a pound, a bullish benchmark for Bristol Bay.
