A return to form for the Peruvian anchovy fishery second season, which ended in January 2016, and the subsequent increase in fishmeal supply should lead to an easing of fishmeal prices this year.
There had been concerns that again fishmeal supplies would be tight in 2016, however the Peruvian anchovy catch – from the single-largest fishery in the world – was good through to its conclusion with a 100 percent quota utilization, said Gorjan Nikolik, associate director of animal protein with Rabobank International.
“First, we were worried that it would have a very low quota, but it turned out to be a reasonable quota of around 1.5 million metric tons (MT). This isn’t as high as the usual quota of 2.5 million MT but it was better than many were expecting.
“Throughout this period, we went from a very tight supply to a reasonable supply and the prices throughout this period contracted until about the beginning of March 2016. At this point, most of the Peruvian supply sold out. What we see for the rest of the year, at least from Peru, is that this year will be a pretty good year,” said Nikolik.
Crucially, during the catches, the fleet saw a lot of juvenile fish. As such, the expectations are for two solid seasons.
“This could see Peru again catch 5 million MT this year, resulting in 1 million MT of fishmeal coming out of the country.”
This comes at a good time as it affects almost everyone else in the world – the Scandinavian region, Asia and Chile – where there has been declining supply of fishmeal. And it’s expected the increased supply from Peru will offset the declines elsewhere and that the overall supply will grow by 1 or 2 percent this year.
While the supply will be slightly less tight this year, the demand side could see a bit of weakness, said Nikolik. This is related to the ongoing problems in the salmon industry, the shrimp sector not growing by more than a couple of percent, and also declining pig herd in China.
At the same time, feed formulations are constantly improving, with less pressure being placed on marine raw materials like fishmeal.
“All in all, if there’s no big growth in aquaculture or pig production in 2016, then we should expect a softer demand situation with somewhat lower prices than in 2015,” he said.
