While very high Alaska salmon runs are projected again for the season that unofficially started late last week with the celebrated Copper River opening, buyers are still cautious on predicting supply and pricing.
The total 2015 Alaskan salmon catch is expected to soar to 220.9 million fish, led by pink salmon at 140.3 million fish, along with 58.8 million sockeye salmon, 4.6 million coho salmon and 17.2 million chum salmon, according to Alaska Department of Fish & Game estimates.
The projected pink salmon catch is a signficiant 46 percent higher than the 2014 harvest. Additionally, the projected sockeye salmon harvest is expected to be about 33 percent higher than the harvest in 2014, and the projected chum salmon harvest is expected to be about 52 percent higher than last year.
Meanwhile, ADF&G predicts 2.2 million sockeye, 214,000 coho and 6,000 chinook for the Copper River District.
While a much larger run is predicted than last season, buyers are realistic that the actual harvest can be lower than projected. “Everybody acts like the projections are accurate, but they are not necessarily that accurate and there is a wide range of projections. Bristol Bay, for example has been way off in the past,” said a large salmon processor.
“I don’t know what production is going to be like. They are talking about the sockeyes being a really strong run,” said a Northeast U.S. distributor.
Still, many buyers predict that prices will likely be favorable as they were last season with its strong returns. “I’m sure pricing will be favorable compared to other years,” the distributor said. “A lot of producers froze a lot of fish last year. They were betting on sales to Russia that, of course, fell through.”
Even with a strong forecast, buyers say there’s always strong demand for Alaska salmon – particularly at the beginning of the season. “I think the fresh market demand will be good. It’s not until the bigger runs develop in Bristol Bay and Cook Inlet before you know whether the fresh market is going to be able to absorb any of that or not,” the salmon processor said.
While domestic demand for Alaska salmon will likely be strong, the fishery will need to work overtime to increase foreign demand. U.S. exports of all fresh, frozen and canned wild and farmed salmon exports declined from nearly 32 million kilograms (kg) in March, 2014, to 23.9 million kg as of March, 2015, according to National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) data.
However, major Alaska salmon processors’ recent efforts to rejoin Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification, if successful, will likely increase their credibility among foreign buyers and boost buying from European Union countries.
