While the quota for Barents Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) has been reduced for the second year running — this time by more than 10 percent — there will be no shortage of whitefish in the European market next year.
The joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission has confirmed the Barents Sea cod quota has been set at 894,000 metric tons (MT) for 2015, in accordance with advice given by the International Council for Exploration of the Seas (ICES). This total allowable catch (TAC) is down from 993,000 MT this year and the record 1 million MT in 2013.
Norway is Europe’s main supplier from the Northeast Arctic cod stock. The Scandinavian country’s share of the new Barents Sea TAC is 401,240 MT, down from 443,735 MT this year, and the whitefish sector will be hoping 2015’s cod harvest proves sufficiently low enough to drive prices upward in the European market. It will have a much clearer picture in the first-quarter of next year as around 75 percent of Norway’s cod is traditionally landed by 1 May.
Norway currently exports 99 percent of its fresh cod and 47 percent of its frozen cod to the EU and companies have been hit hard by the low cod prices that have prevailed over the past two years.
Europe will also continue to be well supplied by Icelandic cod in 2015. For the quota year 2014/2015, Iceland has set a cod TAC according to the country’s new harvest control rule (HCR) of 218,000 metric tons (MT). This represents a slight increase on its 215,000 MT TAC for the quota year 2013/2014. Icelandic fishing authorities expect catches will remain at this level for the next few years.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission has set the 2015 Barents Sea haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) TAC at 178,500 MT for the second consecutive year. While this is 10 percent greater than ICES’ recommendation, it’s still 21,500 MT lower than in 2013 and a massive 139,500 MT less than in 2012. Haddock prices are projected to remain very high as a result.
Further fuelling the strong price trend, Iceland’s haddock TAC for the quota year 2014/2015 has been set at 30,400 MT, which continues the recent course of declining supply. Iceland’s haddock TAC for the quota year 2013/2014 was set at 38,000 MT, down from 44,000 MT and 46,000 MT in the previous two quota years.
Authorities expect Iceland’s haddock TAC to decrease further in the next few years.
If haddock prices climb much more, then it is likely more buyers will switch to Atlantic cod, say whitefish traders.
From a global perspective, the total supply of Atlantic cod will fall from 1,334,000 MT this year to 1,233,000 MT in 2015, according to panel estimates from the 23rd Annual Groundfish Forum, held last month in Rome. At the same time, the haddock supply will slide from 286,000 MT this year to 278,000 MT in 2015.
Overall, the wild-caught whitefish harvest is expected to reach 7,078 million MT in 2015, down slightly from 2014’s estimated catch figure of 7,092 million MT.
