It never rains, only pours for Scotland’s pelagic industry. The ink is barely dry on the trilateral agreement for catch-share allocations in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) that effectively brought an end to the four-year “mackerel war,” but already the Scots have been dealt another major blow — the loss of their No.1 market.
With landings worth around GBP 90 million (USD 149.8 million, EUR 112.2 million) annually, mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is the most valuable species for the Scottish fishing fleet. At the same time, Russia is the single biggest importer of pelagic fish in the world and has been buying Scottish mackerel and herring for more than 100 years. In fact, going back just 20 or 30 years, it was Scotland’s only overseas market for these species.
At the start of August, the frozen mackerel trade between the two countries was valued at GBP 16 million (USD 26.8 million, EUR 20 million) annually. Today, however, it’s not worth a penny following Russia’s tit-for-tat full embargo on food imports from the European Union (EU), United States and some other Western countries, which President Vladimir Putin has said will last for one full year.
In addition to its shipments to Russia, Scotland also exports mackerel to many Asian and African markets, which has given U.K. authorities hope of opening up further overseas sales channels for the fish. Many industry stakeholders, however, are understandably skeptical. With Scotland traditionally exporting as much as 20 percent of its mackerel to Russia, the chances of finding a new market or even a cluster of new markets overnight that want to import similar volumes are extremely unlikely, confirmed one leading processor.
Other U.K. strategies aimed at reducing the full impact of the embargo, which have been floated at emergency ministerial/industry meetings, include growing domestic demand with consumers and retailers and exploring the viability of “banking” quota — leaving the fish in the sea — until after the ban is lifted. Of all the potential solutions on the table, it is the quota banking that would be the easiest and most sustainable to implement and would have the quickest impact, said the processor. However, such a move would need EU approval.
The challenge has been made all the more difficult by the 80 percent increase in mackerel quota that was handed to the Scottish pelagic fleet in May. The Scots now have the largest quota that they have seen in many years — between 227,375 metric tons (MT) and 247,978 MT.
The increase followed an update of the total allowable catch (TAC) advice for NEA mackerel issued by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), which recommended a new total for the four coastal states (EU, Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands) of between 927,000 MT and 1.011 million MT. This TAC represents an increase of 13 percent on its previous advice of 889,886 MT released in October 2013 and up significantly from the 2013 TAC of 542,000 MT.
Under the new five-year trilateral agreement, the EU has 58.4 percent of the TAC, of which Scotland has a 42 percent share.
Many stakeholders fear prices will slide dramatically, particularly once Scotland’s mackerel fishing season kicks in, said the processor. The catching season traditionally runs from October to March.
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