The Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s 2024 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon forecast is once again calling for a smaller run than the year prior.
ADF&G is predicting a run in Bristol Bay of 39 million sockeye, down from the 54.5 million run in 2023.
The prediction would equivalate to a harvest of 26.1 million fish; in 2023, around 40.6 million sockeye were harvested commercially. If the prediction holds true, the harvest size would be 39 percent less than the 10-year harvest average of 40.7 million.
ADF&G predicted a run of 49.7 million sockeye in Bristol Bay last year, and the state agency acknowledged its preseason forecasts have under-forecast the actual run by 15 percent on average since 2001. Its forecast range for 2024 is 24.89 million to 53.12 million fish, with an 80 percent confidence level.
Inside of Bristol Bay, ADF&G predicted the Naknek-Kvichak run at 15.40 million, with a harvest of 8.06 million sockeye; the Nushagak run at 12.42 million, with a harvest of 8.29 million; the Egegik run at 5.7 million, with a harvest of 4.44 million; the Ugashik run at 4.78 million, with a harvest of 3.69 million; and the Togiak run at 70,000 sockeye, with a harvest of 52,000 fish.
In 2023, the Naknek-Kvichak catch was 13.1 million; the Egegik catch was 12.7 million; the Nushagak catch was 12 million; the Ugashik catch was 2.3 million; and the Togiak catch was 443,000. Total escapement neared 14 million sockeye.
In September, the University of Washington’s Fisheries Research Institute (FRI) estimated a run of 38.9 million sockeye across the bay, with a total harvest of 26.4 million sockeye. The forecast is calling for an average fish weight of 5.5 pounds, which would result in a harvest of 145.1 million pounds of salmon. An updated UW-FRI Preseason Forecast will be released later in November.
ADF&G reported the ex-vessel value of all salmon caught in Bristol Bay in 2023 was USD 117.4 million (EUR 109.5 million), 37 percent below the 20-year average of USD 187.6 million (EUR 174.9 million). Prices were estimated using fish ticket weight and price paid for each species, based on the major buyers’ base price and not including future price adjustments for icing, bleeding, floating, or production bonuses.
In a recent update, the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute said the Alaska seafood industry “is facing extraordinary market challenges.”
“A convergence of domestic and international circumstances has created hardship for everyone in our industry,” it said. “Although Alaska’s fishermen produce more than 60 percent of America’s wild-caught seafood, Alaska seafood competes in a global market. By value, two-thirds of Alaska’s catch is exported. By weight, 80 percent is exported. We’re the 15th largest global seafood exporter (by value) and we harvest less than 10 percent of the global salmon supply. In short, Alaska seafood is a significant part of the domestic and international seafood markets, but we are subject to numerous geopolitical, trade inequity, and economic factors beyond our control.”
ASMI said the market downturn had impacted salmon, Alaska pollock, and sablefish sales.
“Many Alaska species are currently experiencing a large supply and demand imbalance,” it said. “While Alaska experienced a large 2023 pink salmon harvest of almost 200,000 metric tons, it’s important to note that Russia likely harvested over three times what we brought in. The sheer size of the Russian harvest and the significantly lower value of the Russian ruble has allowed Russia to sell pink salmon and salmon roe to our shared customers at very low prices, driving down market value for all salmon species.”
ASMI also blamed the ongoing trade war with China for halving U.S. seafood exports to China to USD 500 million (EUR 466 million) in 2023 from the 2017 total of nearly USD 1 billion (EUR 932 million).
“While ASMI is working hard to diversify away from China, and we are seeing progress, the loss of the Chinese commodity market has led to a lack of revenue for processors during a time of high interest rates and large inventories,” it said. “China’s reprocessing sector is also providing a vehicle for Russian origin seafood to enter U.S. and European markets by obscuring the country of origin. Consequently, less-expensive Russian origin seafood continues to compete head-to-head with Alaska seafood in virtually all markets.”
ASMI also blamed the strong U.S. dollar for increasing the sale cost of Alaska seafood in many international markets, adding to the impacts of inflation, which it said has increased labor, materials, shipping, cold storage, and fuel costs.
“Additionally, interest rates have gone up five percentage points since March 2022, harming processors’ ability to secure financing while they hold product in inventory awaiting better pricing, further hurting cash flow,” it said.
ASMI noted consumers have cut back on their seafood purchases.
“On the demand side, consumers are feeling the effects of inflation and the high cost of food. Dollars don’t go as far as they used to, especially at the grocery store. People are still going out to eat but spend less on Alaska seafood products when food budgets are tight,” it said. “Retail prices for Alaska seafood remain high as retailers seek to improve margins and profitability, even as wholesale prices are dropping. Reduced consumer demand has made retailers cautious when buying seafood.”
ASMI said as a result of these problems, “everyone throughout the Alaska seafood supply chain is hurting.”
“Industry experts note current market conditions place our industry in an economic squeeze not seen for decades or longer,” it said. “Many Alaska processors struggle to pay fishermen on time or have quit buying all together. Alaska fishermen don’t know how they will make boat payments. While ‘we’re all in this together’ isn’t a consolation, it’s a starting place to realize these global economic factors cause significant challenges and hardship for all of us in the Alaska seafood industry,” it said.
In response to the crisis, ASMI has added USD 1 million (EUR 930,000) to its domestic marketing campaign fund and continued its salmon marketing campaign through the summer. It also said it pushed for the U.S. government to purchase more Alaska seafood, resulting in USD 120 million (EUR 112 million) worth of purchases from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
And it said it has focused its international marketing efforts “on Alaska products most in need.” It opened an office in Southeast Asia and expanded its presence in Latin America.
“New international markets take time, but ASMI is building a more diverse and resilient international market future,” it said.
ASMI confirmed Alaska’s government made a USD 5 million (EUR 4.7 million) appropriation to support ASMI in 2023.
“These funds will help ASMI continue its critical work to keep telling the Alaska seafood story in the U.S. and around the globe,” it said. “Recognizing a common need for improvement should bring our industry together to forge a stronger future through strategic actions to increase market demand for Alaska seafood and build better wholesale and ex-vessel value.”
Photo courtesy of Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association
