U.S. pangasius imports fell significantly in 2023, potentially due to its price rising beyond USD 3.50 (EUR 3.22) per pound in April 2022.
The price of 5- to 7-ounce frozen pangasius fillets is now below USD 2 (EUR 1.84) per pound, but year-to-date imports through November 2023 have cratered at 166 million pounds, down from 284 million pounds for all of 2022. Pangasius had been on an upward trajectory in the U.S., which imported 110 million pounds in 2019, 128 million pounds in 2020, and 235 million pounds in 2021.
“It has been a pretty significant retreat,” Maritime Products International President Matthew Fass said at the 2024 Global Seafood Market Conference in Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. on 25 January.
The pricing peak in 2022 can be directly attributed to rising freight costs in 2021 and 2022, Fass said.
“But from where we were one year ago, pricing has fallen about 20 to 25 percent,” he said.
Urner Barry Seafood Market Reporter Lorin Castiglione said the U.S. tilapia market has returned to growth, but pangasius has yet to follow.
“Now we're beginning to see freight [costs] firm up once again, so we can anticipate wholesale prices will follow,” Castiglione said. “However, after some of that [weakness] we saw throughout 2023 on both markets it will be interesting to watch to see how 2024 unfolds, especially because we're already seeing an uptick in tilapia [imports], but [that hasn’t been] as impactful yet on the pangasius market.”
The switch from U.S. Food and Drug Administration oversight to U.S. Department of Agriculture import controls in 2017 has been a “big deal” in the pangasius trade, according to Fass.
“Market volatility continues through today,” he said. “It has transformed certain aspects of production and supply chains in Vietnam. It transforms how the product comes into this country and how it goes through entry here. It transforms how companies are handling and distributing the product.”
U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties have also harmed pangasius imports. Vietnam, which now accounts for 45 percent of the world’s pangasius production, filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization in 2018 over anti-dumping measures the U.S. imposed on pangasius imports. In November 2023, the WTO issued a statement revealing the U.S. and Vietnam “remain engaged in discussions with respect to the resolution of this dispute,” and requesting a delay in the public dissemination of a public report on the matter until 15 February 2024.
“It's a really big deal. We are just going past the 20-year mark of anti-dumping duties on cases from Vietnam. I think a lot of people forget about that because it feels like something that is taken care of … but it remains a challenge,” Fass said.
Vietnam now accounts for 45 percent of the world’s pangasius production, with most of its product exported to the U.S. and Europe. But as a means of diversification to hedge against U.S. protectionist measures, Vietnamese pangasius firms have grown their business with China – with mixed results, according to Fass.
“The demand from China has been offset by that market’s volatility,” he said, pointing to China’s strict “zero-Covid” import controls regime that resulted in the refusal of dozens of Vietnamese pangasius shipments. “You've just got a whole host of events that play into this type of volatility, which isn't really great for anybody.”
The end of the zero-Covid policy and the U.S. ban on Russian whitefish have opened up opportunities for Vietnam’s pangasius suppliers, but Vinh Hoan CEO Ngo Vi Tam Nguyen told SeafoodSource in March 2023 there have been domestic production challenges that impeded progress. Those challenges were further revealed in 2023 financial reports from Vietnam’s leading pangasius firms, which showed falling sales volumes and lower profits.
“As China ran into its Covid issues, [its] demand then dropped off [and] left Vietnam’s [producers] with mixed results, since they had come to expect this China business and grown their production to help match this,” Fass said. “[That led] to a bit more of an oversupply situation with production, which led to more of a downward cycle on prices. They seem to be working to adjust more to this now and China is showing signs of picking up – all of which is why it feels like some firmness in farming and production price may be part of the story moving further into 2024.”
In 2024 and beyond, pangasius has a massive growth opportunity as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war – extended by U.S. President Joe Biden after taking office in 2020 – takes a toll on the tilapia trade, according to Fass.
While U.S. pangasius imports dropped in 2023, so did tilapia imports, from 234 million pounds in 2022 to 187 million pounds through November 2023. The price for frozen tilapia fillets from China is averaging USD 2.50 (EUR 2.30), giving pangasius a significant edge.
“China is doing a great job with tilapia; there’s a great foundation there. But there's no question that just geopolitically, you have buyers thinking, ‘Alright, what am I developing from China right now versus potentially Vietnam or other countries?' And it all comes into play, fairly or not,” he said.
Fass said there are “bigger differences between the species than ...
Photo by Cliff White/SeafoodSource
