China's seafood imports will grow in 2024, according to a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
The USDA’s China Fishery Products Report, released 22 March 2024, predicts Chinese demand for salmon and lobster is set to continue rising, even after Chinese demand for Norwegian salmon spiked to its highest post-Covid-19 point in 2023.
"The longtime global leader in seafood consumption, Chinese consumers increasingly display preferences for high-quality and value-added seafood products," the report said. "Although per-capita seafood consumption dropped slightly in 2022 due to the impact of Covid-related restrictions, demand rebounded in 2023 as the economy reopened."
Foodservice revenue in 2022 declined 6.3 percent year over year in 2022, but the sector rebounded in 2023, with revenue increasing 20.4 percent. Seafood prices remained affordable for most Chinese consumers, giving a boost to the category.
"In a positive sign for continued growth in consumption, prices for most seafood products remain affordable for China’s increasingly price-conscious consumers," the report said. "There is a steady increase in the consumption of frozen and processed seafood. This shift is attributed to improvements in processing techniques, distribution networks (including e-commerce), and the development of cold chain systems. The rising popularity of high-end supermarkets and consumer interest in diverse and nutritious diets featuring seafood also contribute to the growing consumption of frozen and processed seafood. In addition, consumer awareness about potential food safety risks associated with live seafood is playing a role in this shift, as some consumers are opting for frozen and other processed fishery products over live seafood."
Chinese consumers are also moving away from making seafood purchases at wet markets, according to the report.
"The impact of Covid-19 and related control measures accelerated changes in consumer purchasing behavior. There has been a shift from buying fresh and live seafood at traditional wet markets to purchasing fresh and frozen seafood through e-commerce channels," the report found, with shrimp being the most popular seafood item purchased online by Chinese consumers.
China's domestic supply of wild-caught seafood remains constrained, with production declining to 12.88 million metric tons (MT) in 2023, down 1 percent year over year, according to Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data.
Constraints on domestic fishing include government bans implemented in response to stock collapses in Chinese lakes, rivers, and seas, including a 10-year ban on fishing in the Yangtze River introduced in 2021. China has also set strict conservation measures on domestic fishing, attempting to limit the total catch to less than 10 million MT per year. Additionally, it has implemented stricter environmental laws that have limited aquaculture production,
As a result of these shifts, China must grow imports or expand production from its distant-water fleet to satisfy domestic demand, the USDA report found.
China’s 2023 seafood imports reached 4.6 million MT, valued at USD 18.8 billion (EUR 17.5 billion), up 12 percent by volume and 0.5 percent by value compared to 2022 – both all-time high figures. Frozen fish imports rose 15.5 percent by volume, and crustacean imports rose 13.6 percent by volume.
"Seafood imports from the United States showed 2.9 percent year-over-year growth in volume and 1.5 percent in value in 2023; however, they are still 7.8 percent lower compared with pre-Covid volumes in 2019," the report said. "Russia remains China’s largest seafood supplier with total volume of 1.27 million MT in 2023, followed by Ecuador at 700,000 MT, India at 350,000 MT, Vietnam at 300,000 MT, and the United States at 290,000 MT."
China has been usurped as the world’s top seafood exporter in certain categories. According to the USDA report, processed fish and fish fillets continue to make up the bulk of China’s exports, but overall, these remain below the pre-Covid period when volumes exceeded 4 million MT annually from 2017 to 2019.
While Japan remains the top purchaser of Chinese seafood exports, there has been a drop in Western market demand. Seafood exports to the U.S., which is China’s number-two seafood market, decreased both in volume and value in 2023 – down 14.4 percent and 21.6 percent, respectively, year over year. There was also a year-over-year 31 percent drop in fish fillet shipments to the U.S. from China.
The USDA expects China's seafood exports to the U.S. will drop again in 2024 due to a ban by the U.S. government on Russian seafood, including Russian-origin products processed in Chinese factories.
Chinese tilapia exports recovered in 2023, rising 33 percent year over year to 136,000 MT, but remain under pressure from cheaper Vietnamese pangasius. Tilapia exports remain off levels seen in 2018 and 2019, when shipments averaged 216,000 million MT.
Signaling the changes occurring in Chinese export patterns, African markets like Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso both bought higher volumes of Chinese tilapia than the U.S., previously a key market for Chinese tilapia filets, in 2023. This comes after China has made a large recent push to invest in African infrastructure, including in the continent’s aquaculture sector.
