Consumption trends have been ebbing and flowing throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic thus far, benefitting seafood across categories in significant ways.
A 2021 survey from Food & Health found that one-quarter of consumers ate more fish/shellfish than they did a year prior. Moreover, 36 percent of adult consumers surveyed for Technomic’s 2021 Center of the Plate: Seafood & Vegetarian Consumer Trend Report said they’d recently been switching out meat for more seafood.
In July 2021, frozen seafood sales at retail in the U.S. topped all other frozen proteins, climbing 43.7 percent compared to the same month in 2019, according to data from 210 Analytics and IRI Worldwide. The firms went on to find fresh, frozen, and shelf-stable seafood delivering strong performances in the U.S. grocery scene in August 2021 as well.
The sector’s traction among consumers has gained ground in part due to increases in healthier eating, convenience mindsets, and cravings for more adventurous flavors, among other things. Here, 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink shares with SeafoodSource trends to watch in the months ahead – as well as details on the demographics likely to fuel them.
SeafoodSource: What kind of consumption trends should seafood key buyers across channels be paying attention to in early 2022?
Roerink: It’s important to look at seafood trends within the larger marketplace. Whereas we see a normalization of shopping and consumption trends between March and July of 2021, the upswing in COVID cases reversed several of those trends. For instance, we had been seeing a decrease in the level of concern about COVID-19 month-to-month and that went hand-in-hand with people flocking back to the store, spending a bit more time and feeling more relaxed to browse for new items and recipe ideas. That favors fresh seafood, as fewer people order fresh online versus frozen. At the same time, consumers were actively re-engaging with restaurants, eating on-premise while continuing to order takeout at the high pandemic levels. We had the odd situation where both retail and foodservice sales were trending ahead of 2019 levels for a while.
Come the end of July, August, and September, we saw a reversal in many of those trends. The higher level of new COVID-19 cases in late summer/early fall meant more people went back to ordering groceries online and those who did shop in-store were a bit more hurried, more likely to wear masks, and likely not to hit the store as often as they had been. All that changes the landscape for seafood. But the renewed, or perhaps prolonged, health concerns now flowing over into flu season will emphasize healthy choices. So, there is a mix of headwinds and tailwinds.
SeafoodSource: Are millennials still the trendsetters for the seafood category? And have you seen any recent changes in how other generations/demographics are engaging with seafood?
Roerink: Millennials play an interesting role in seafood. By and large, it’s actually the Baby Boomer generation who over-indexes for frozen and fresh seafood. However, frozen seafood has an interesting point of entry for breaded offerings: the arrival of children in the household, which is why millennial spending in frozen seafood is growing rapidly. Millennials also enjoy sushi, where – together with Generation X – they are majority spenders. They are also the driving force behind the bowl trend, where we often see seafood and shrimp make an appearance. It depends a bit on whether you look at the more traditional sales or the prepared foods and frozen sales.
Certainly, the growth in millennial engagement is very important as slowly-but-surely the market is turning over from Boomers being the majority spenders to now Gen X and, in a few years, it will be millennials. The latter’s income and family size is growing rapidly and that will fuel spending. As such, it’s important for fresh and frozen seafood to find common ground with millennial likes and preferences as well as address their desire to have common values in areas such as sustainability and social responsibility.
Seafood consumption is also highest among affluent households. I suspect we may see some more lower-income households enter the category, especially on the frozen side through the expansion in SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program] participation and dollars. But altogether, wider engagement across all income areas is a big opportunity for seafood. Many people have the perception that it is expensive, but there are certainly some great value items available in fresh and frozen. Today’s inflationary levels have many more people focused on price and promotions, and that’s an important call for seafood to answer.
SeafoodSource: Are there any consumer trends you’ve seen take off during the pandemic that you don’t foresee lasting post-pandemic? Conversely, are there any trends you see intensifying in a post pandemic landscape?
Roerink: During the pandemic, there was a lot of focus on buying enough to last the week, or maybe even two weeks to minimize trips. We saw a shift, across categories, to larger pack sizes. Now, entering an area of very high inflation, we typically see people focus on saving by buying less – just the amount they need. So, it will be interesting to see how the two pulls will work together. In other words, I think we’re going to see some changes in shopping strategies, but I suspect that seafood will remain a top choice.
Trends we saw emerge in the later months are not going away any time soon. Think about convenience through value-added items, meal kits, and recipes, but also the hybrid meal, where consumers combine a little bit of scratch with some heat-and-eat solutions.
SeafoodSource: What kind of flavors and product types are really resonating for North American consumers right now?
Roerink: In the last few months, we saw salmon and shrimp come on very strong again, along with some of the value-focused whitefish. The jury is out on where the premium items such as crab and lobster will trend in the next few months. Whereas we had seen some of those dollars shift back to restaurants, the surge in COVID cases may again affect those seafood occasions.
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