New data projects the U.S. restaurant industry will reach USD 1.5 trillion (EUR 1.4 trillion) in sales this year, despite a myriad of potential economic challenges.
The National Restaurant Association's 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report found sales would rise 4 percent in 2025, driven by a “positive economic environment and resilient consumer demand,” the association said. The restaurant industry is also expected to add 200,000 net new jobs this year, so total restaurant and foodservice employees should reach 15.9 million – the second largest private sector employer in the U.S.
“The fundamentals of the restaurant industry are strong, and operators are optimistic about the year ahead,” NRA President & CEO Michelle Korsmo said.
More than 8 in 10 restaurant operators expect their 2025 sales to be either higher or about the same as 2024. However, they also expect competitive pressures to intensify in 2025 and rising labor and food costs to continue to be their top concerns.
In fact, 96 percent of restaurant operators say food cost are currently a “very significant” or “fairly significant” challenge. As a result, 65 percent of full-service operators and 44 percent of limited-service operators switched out more expensive menu items for more affordable options last year.
Restaurant growth will come from operators finding the balance of value and experience for consumers, and innovating breakthrough efficiency in their operations, Korsmo said.
Sales at full service restaurants are expected to increase from USD 513 billion in 2024 (EUR 494 billion) to USD 522 billion (EUR 503 billion) in 2025, while limited-service sales are projected to increase from USD 510 billion (EUR 492 billion) to USD 532 billion (EUR 513 billion). Retail hosts should also realize growth of USD 6 billion (EUR 5.8 billion) to reach USD 154 billion (EUR 148 billion), while lodging places, recreation and sports facilities, schools and colleges, and “all other foodservice establishments” will also see growth.
Consumers have pent-up demand for restaurant meals, and say they would use restaurants more frequently if they had the money. Of those surveyed, 81 percent said they would eat more at on-premises dining at tableservice restaurants; 76 percent said they would visit more quick-service restaurants, snack places, delis or coffee shops; and 82 percent said they would have food delivered at home.
The majority of operators said that increasing traffic on-site and getting diners back in their seats will be important to their restaurant’s success in 2025.
And, while they recognize they need to offer consumers “value,” restaurant operators will offer fewer discounts or deals than they did in 2024, according to the report.
Seventy-five percent of consumers say value is an important factor when going out to a quick service restaurant, snack place, deli or coffee shop, while 62 percent said the same about picking a sit-down table service restaurant. On the other hand, 82 percent of delivery customers say the option to get a daily special, discount, or value promotion is important to them when choosing a restaurant for delivery.
Limited time offers for a reduced price, value/combo meals at reduced prices, and buy-one-get-one free offers were also a hit with consumers, as 80 percent of those surveyed said they would take advantage of special deals.
Americans continue to be strained financially, according to the report, as more than 60 percent reported difficulty saving for significant goals like vacations, cars, or retirement. And around half are struggling to comfortably maintain their desired lifestyle, pay down debt like loans and credit cards, or keep up with basic expenses.
Additionally, 40 percent of customers report being very worried about their personal finances and have actively reduced their spending, and another 41 percent are holding back on making purchases as they monitor their financial situation.
However, the meaning of “value” to diners in 2025 extends beyond price to include a mix of experience, hospitality and affordability, according to the NRA.
“Research highlights that welcoming environments and socialization are key motivators for consumers. To address this demand, restaurant operators must strike a balance between offering value-based pricing while ensuring cleanliness alongside a friendly, approachable staff,” the NRA said.
Additionally, 70 percent of consumers expressed interest in tasting events, 52 percent would like private dinner events with a chef, and 50 percent are interested in cooking classes at a restaurant.
“These preferences illustrate the growing importance of innovative, hospitality-driven dining, where restaurants are not just places to eat, but spaces for entertainment, education, and community-building,” the organization said.
One of the top ways for restaurant operators to grow sales for the upcoming year will be to prioritize off-premise, or takeout and delivery, sales, NRA Vice President for Research and Knowledge Chad Moutray told attendees at the 2025 Global Seafood Market Conference in Palm Desert, California, U.S.A.,
“On-premise sales have rebounded from where they were early in the pandemic but have not recovered to where they were in February 2020,” Moutray said. “The flip of that is true for off-premise. People are getting takeout and delivery on a much more frequent basis, with off-premise sales up about 13 percent since the start of the pandemic.”
