The El Niño weather pattern that has affected the fishing sectors of Peru and other Latin American countries this year may be sticking around longer than anticipated, a potential outcome that is alarming the region’s fishers and aquaculture farmers.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the ongoing El Niño event – a climate pattern that causes ocean surface warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean regions – is expected to now last until at least April 2024.
The warming pattern developed rapidly during July and August of this year, reaching moderate strength by September. The WMO said it is expected to peak in November to January 2024,, with a 90 percent probability it will continue throughout the upcoming Southern Hemisphere summer.
The Guayaquil, Ecuador-based International Center for Research on the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN) reported that in October, the Central Pacific warmed more than normal up to about 250 meters deep, while the Western Pacific was colder than normal at depths between 100 and 250 meters, signaling the beginning of the El Niño maturation stage.
“CIIFEN reiterates the invitation to strengthen activities that tend to reduce vulnerability, as well as strengthen risk management plans in this new stage of El Niño,” the center stated.
Governments and fishery authorities throughout Latin America have taken heed.
According to Ecuador’s National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA), more than 50 percent of the country’s shrimp farms are in flood-prone areas, and the CNA’s Environment Directorate estimates that around 110,000 hectares are at imminent risk due to El Niño.
The chamber based its estimate on information from ERFÉN, the organization in charge of studying the El Niño phenomenon in Ecuador, which obtained the results from a scientific research voyage, where the Ecuadorian Navy vessel Orión collected data at 57 stations around the continent’s waters.
To mitigate the impact of this climatic event, the CNA recommended its members adopt measures including reviewing retaining walls at shrimp farms and reinforcing vulnerable structures with sandbags; ensuring the correct storage of hazardous materials; implementing vector and pest control measures such as setting rodent traps and fumigating for insects; and keeping storage areas clean, among other actions.
The CNA also said it is coordinating with relevant authorities, including prefectures and mayoral offices, to mitigate risks, “taking into account the serious impact on the economy and employment in Ecuador if the country’s main economic activity is seriously affected.” Ecuador's shrimp exports reached USD 6.6 billion (EUR 6.1 billion) in 2022, continuing an impressive run of growth from USD 5.1 billion (EUR 4.7 billion) in 2021 and USD 3.6 billion (EUR 3.3 billion) in 2020.
Chile’s National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (Sernapesca) declared an aquaculture pre-alert for the southern regions of Biobío, Araucanía, Los Ríos, Los Lagos, Aysén, and Magallanes for the remainder of 2023 and part of 2024 due to the possible occurrence of El Niño-driven algal blooms. Several salmon farming centers in the Reloncavi Estuary are already dealing with algal blooms, and have activated contingency plans for a combined biomass of 79.727 metric tons (MT) of salmon.
“These events, according to the technical reports provided to us by the IFOP [Fisheries Development Institute], are natural events that cannot be predicted and that have historically generated negative effects on fish farming in the southern region, causing significant mortalities of salmonids,” Sernapesca Deputy Director of Aquaculture Mónica Rojas said in a statement.
Sernapesca has instructed fish farms to apply environmental and/or oceanographic monitoring measures, such as the daily review of phytoplankton and other variables such as sea temperature, salinity, and water turbidity. Other measures include the coordinated analysis, removal, and disposal of mortalities from farming centers, as well as the halting of activities at grow-out, storage, or slaughter centers, with a case-by-case evaluation performed to address specific contingencies.
Farms had 10 days from the 8 November Sernapesca resolution to provide information necessary for proper decision-making.
Chile’s salmon-farming industry also saw a record USD 6.6 billion (EUR 6.1 billion) in exports in 2022, making any negative El Niño impacts concerning for the wider economy.
Peru, the world’s largest producer of fishmeal and fish oil thanks to its top-producing anchovy fishery, is already suffering from the effects of El Niño.
Peru’s Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) was forced to cancel the country’s first anchovy season earlier this year due to the effects of El Niño, which led to a high incidence of juveniles and deficient biological conditions needed to fish sustainably. It later authorized a 26 October launch of the second anchovy fishery season in the country’s main north-central zone, establishing a total allowable catch (TAC) of 1.68 million MT.
The second season won’t be enough to offset the cancellation of the first, and Peru National Fisheries Society (SNP) President Eduardo Ferreyros has classified the situation as “the worst crisis in the last 25 years.” The cancellation of the first season led to a USD 1.4 billion (EUR 1.3 billion) export loss.
In 2022, anchovy landings totaled 4 million MT. This year, the SNP estimates the country will close at 1.7 million MT – a 60 percent drop.
Photo courtesy of Sernapesca
