UK Christmas grocery outlook bleak for 2024 but offers some hope for seafood sales

"With the legacy of inflation continuing to bite and consumer confidence holding back spending, this Christmas is set to be a subdued affair for grocers."
Two lobsters with their claws tied in a dish
Though analysts are expecting consumers to cut back spending, more premium species like lobster usually see a sales boost in the holiday season | Photo courtesy of Seafish
6 Min

Analysts have a bleak outlook for grocery sales in the U.K. this Christmas season as inflation remains high, but seafood analysts remain optimistic for the category as the holidays near.

Christmas season food sales are expected to incline 2.5 percent in the U.K. but decline 0.7 percent when adjusted for inflation, according to global consulting firm AlixPartners.

AlixPartners also found 21 percent of British consumers intend to spend less on food this Christmas compared to last year, while only 13 percent plan to spend more. A little more than half of consumers (55 percent) plan to spend the same amount as last year.

Similarly, only 9 percent of Britons plan to spend more this Christmas – on all shopping – than last year, while 45 percent intend to spend the same and 22 percent plan to cut back, according to the firm.

“With the legacy of inflation continuing to bite and consumer confidence holding back spending, this Christmas is set to be a subdued affair for grocers,” AlixPartners Head of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa Retail Matt Clark said in a statement. “Last month’s budget brought difficult news, with many preparing to take a significant financial hit as a result of the National Living Wage and National Insurance Contribution increases.”

Jennifer Robson, the head of economics, insight, and advice at U.K. seafood representative body Seafish, told SeafoodSource that sales have been slow in November in the lead up to Christmas but may pick up


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