The Tokyo-based National Pacific Saury Stick Net Fishery Cooperative announced on 10 January that only 17,910 metric tons (MT) of saury were landed by Japanese vessels in 2022, marking the fourth consecutive year of record lows since statistics started being kept in 1961.
The amount is a two percent decline from the 18,291 MT caught in 2021, which was down 38 percent from the 29,566 MT caught in 2020, which in turn was down 27 percent from the 40,517 MT landed in 2019. The decline is especially apparent when the current trickle of fish is compared with the nearly 350,000 MT landed in 2008, and the approximately 225,000 MT caught in 2012.
Fishing for the species takes place along the Pacific coast of Hokkaido and the Sanriku area (Aomori, Iwate, and Miyagi prefectures) in northeast Honshu Island. Traditionally, Sanriku takes most of the catch, but last year the pattern switched and Hokkaido saw moderate increases, while Sanriku saw a decline of 65 percent. This year, the amount landed in Honshu was up by 12 percent, while that in Hokkaido was off by 9 percent. However, Hokkaido still got most of the catch with 10,819 MT versus 7,092 MT for Honshu, reflecting the recent more northerly distribution of saury schools.
Many interacting factors may be responsible for the decline in catch, including rising surface-water temperatures, changes in the interactions of ocean currents in the area, and northward migration of warm-water fish like sardines.
Overfishing by foreign vessels on the high seas is a common complaint from Japanese fishermen, and it is generally believed that warmer water temperatures are keeping the schools in international waters to the northeast of Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) longer, where they are targeted by factory ships from Taiwan and China.
The North Pacific Fishery Commission (NPFC) annually agrees on quotas for saury, but as the first agreement was set in 2019, quotas have been higher than actual recent catches. The priority at the time was to reach agreement on a quota, which China had long resisted, rather than on making it a strict quota.
Saury are quite fecund, and scientists believe they are capable of rebounding quickly when conditions for recruitment are favorable and plankton is abundant. The science seems to support the idea that regime shifts in currents alternate between an environment of stronger cold-water currents that favors saury, and one of weaker cold-water currents that favors sardines. Sardine catches in Japan have increased concurrent with the decline of saury.
A scientific report published in August 2022, “Effects of oceanographic environment on the distribution and migration of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) during main fishing season,” found that among several environmental measures, surface sea temperature was the strongest predictor of monthly catch. The study examined catch of Pacific saury in Japan and by Chinese fishing vessels fishing in international waters at the edge of Japan’s EEZ during the optimal fishing period of September to November 2014 through 2017, finding saury were mainly caught in waters at 15 degrees Celsius. As water temperatures cool in the fall, the fish move south.
The report also found that ocean currents play a role in saury recruitment and catch totals. In the Pacific Ocean near Hokkaido, the cold Oyashio Current from the north converges with the warm Kuroshio Current, which flows from the south. After meeting, both currents flow east. An intrusion of the nutrient-rich Oyashio is when a portion of it continues south hugging the coast. The study found that “the increase in the intrusion area of the Oyashio usually pushed the migration of Pacific saury to the Japanese coastal region. In contrast, when the intrusion area of the Oyashio was reduced, more fish migrated to the high-sea fishing ground.”
An additional factor leading to last year’s poor catch was a reluctance of Japanese fishermen to take their vessels across Russian territorial waters in order to take advantage of reciprocal access agreements that allow Japanese and Russian vessels to fish in each other’s EEZs. Relations between the countries have been strained over Japanese sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, and fishermen feared their vessels might be seized.
Regardless of the reasons for the decline in catch, the unsurprising result is an increase in price thanks to the smaller supply. The Japanese market favors large, fat saury in the range of 150 to 180 grams. Medium saury of around 130 grams and smaller around 120 grams and below are less-favored and don't return much of a premium for fishermen. In recent years, the catch has been mostly small, one-year old fish.
Demand and prices are highest in September, as saury is considered a seasonal fall dish. In December, when the fish come in larger quantities, the price falls, excess catch is frozen, and the price remains low until the following September.
The Retail Price Statistical Survey compiled by Japan’s Statistics Bureau shows the rise in retail price of Pacific saury in the round, measuring 25 centimeters or longer, in both September and December from 2018, a comparatively good year in terms of recent catch.
The national average price in September 2018 was JPY 139 (USD 1.09, EUR 1.00), and the price fell in December to JPY 90 (USD 0.70, EUR 0.65). In 2020, the price was JPY 164 (USD 1.24, EUR 1.19) in September, falling to JPY 134 (USD 1.05, EUR 0.97) in December. Then, in the most recent data, the national price hit JPY 188 (USD 1.47, EUR 1.36) in September 2022, and the Tokyo price average was JPY 145 (USD 1.13, EUR 1.05) in December – highlighting the rise in price in both months.
Average wholesale prices per kilogram at Tokyo’s Toyosu market from January through July ran at around JPY 500 (USD 3.86, EUR 3.55) in 2020, but rose to around JPY 800 (USD 6.17, EUR 5.86) in 2021 and 2022. As with retail, the prices spiked in the fall, reaching JPY 1,355 (USD 10.46, EUR 9.62) in September 2020, JPY 1,146 (USD 8.85, EUR 8.13) in October of 2021, and 1,129 (USD 8.71, EUR 8.01) in September 2022.
Photo by Chris Loew/SeafoodSource
