The United States and the European Union have seen reduced imports of pollock fillets, even as domestic production of Alaskan pollock fillets is rising in the U.S.
At the 2024 Global Seafood Market Conference in Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. on 25 January, Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers Director of Industry Relations, Partnerships, and Fishery Analysis Ron Rogness reported the global pollock catch will increase 12 percent between 2022 and 2024, reaching 410,000 metric tons (MT).
The U.S. catch is predicted to remain stable at about 1.45 million MT in 2023, while Russia’s catch is slated to increase from 1.95 million MT in 2023 to 2.05 million MT in 2024, with an increase in harvests predicted in the Western Bering Sea. Global production is expected to eclipse 3.7 million MT in 2024.
U.S. production rose 17 percent in 2023, resulting in a 21 percent increase in surimi production to 195,107 MT; a 20 percent increase in deep-skin fillet production to 58,890 MT; a 9 percent increase in pinbone-out fillets to 96,238 MT; and a 34 percent increase in mince production to 21,830 MT.
Annual Alaska pollock fillet exports from the U.S. peaked in 2018 at 140,000 MT, but by 2022, they had decreased to 80,000 MT, Rogness noted. Over the same period, the average price for a ton of frozen Alaska pollock fillets has risen from USD 2,618 (EUR 2,415) in 2018 to USD 3,713 (EUR 3,426) in 2022. The price averaged USD 3,833 (EUR 3,536) in November 2023. Fillet exports increased from 78,439 MT in 2022 to 88,594 MT in 2023.
“Compared to 2022, exports are up, as we would expect with the increased production, but they're not up as much as the production itself. So, we're going to see about another 7,000 or 8,000 MT of fillet production stay in the domestic market,” Rogness said. “The increase in deep-skin production – people don't produce that speculatively. So, that's a pretty good indicator of the strong continued demand for that product in the U.S.”
Annual U.S. imports of frozen pollock fillets averaged 29,000 MT for the seven years ending in 2022, compared to 60,000 MT over the prior seven years, according to Rogness. Imports of fillet blocks for 2023 were down about 14.5 percent to 11,324 MT, and frozen fillet and portion imports sunk 22 percent to 22,000 MT. That’s even as prices have fallen from USD 3,164 (EUR 2,919) to USD 3,128 (EUR 2,886) in that time frame, according to Rogness.
Both U.S. and Russian exports to the E.U. have lost sizable market share to imports from China. In 2023, U.S. exports to the E.U. declined 22 percent to 35,112 MT, while the average price increased from USD 3,615 (EUR 3,335) in 2022 to USD 4,073 (EUR 3,757). Russian exports to the E.U. dropped 18 percent to 46,105 MT, with the average price rising from USD 3,554 (EUR 3,279) to USD 4,084 (EUR 3,768). Chinese exports increased 7 percent to 101,406 MT, with prices rising from USD 3,093 (EUR 2,853) to USD 3,686 (EUR 3,401). Overall, the European market imported around 220,000 MT of pollock fillets in 2022, and that total was down to 205,000 MT through October 2023.
“China is gaining market share at the expense of both Russia and the United States,” Rogness said. “Prices are relatively stable, but you can't pay a lot of attention to them because when you do year-over-year comparisons, you hit a peak earlier in the year that will be somewhat stable. Certainly given the last few months, they are down considerably.”
Rogness said there was a large difference in the fillet import price between mid-2021 to late 2022.
“Now, those prices have dropped below both double frozen and single frozen blocks,” he said. “The other thing I would pay attention to is … the price spread between single- and double-frozen. It was stable for a long time, as low as USD 0.02 or USD 0.03 (EUR 0.02 or EUR 0.03) difference per pound. Now, it’s back up around USD 0.30 (EUR 0.28) in recent months.”
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