The Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO) announced a dour initial salmon harvest prediction for 2022.
VNIRO forecasts indicate the country’s salmon season, which starts on 1 June, may be the worst in the last 12 years.
The forecast was announced on 15 February, 2022, during a session of the Kamchatka Fishery Council. VNIRO Anadromous Fish Department Head Albina Kanzeparova said the catch is forecasted to be between 264,000 metric tons (MT) and 320,000 MT, similar to the unexpectedly low harvest in 2020, when fishers harvested roughly 300,000 MT.
The totals in 2020 were bad enough for Russia to call for a new forecasting approach, and Russia declared 2021 to be “The Year of Salmon” and pushed to roll out an action plan to create a new method of forecasting future harvests.
While the initial forecast predicted 264,000 MT of total catch, data emerged later in February that resulted in slightly more optimistic forecast totals. Genetic research done in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea led VNIRO scientists to raise their initial forecast to 300,000 MT.
Part of the lower predicted forecasts is related to a drop in the returns of humpback salmon, with initial harvest predictions at 133,000 MT. Across the far east, the largest catch would come from the Kamchatka region with 137,000 MT, followed by Sakhalin with 87,000 MT, Khabarovsk with 30,000 MT, and Primorye with 10,000 MT. The later revised predictions based on genetic data bumped the total up to 192,000 MT.
Humpback salmon has been the dominant driver behind Russia’s recent record-high salmon harvests, with the total harvest in record-breaking 2018 totaling over 484,000 MT. However, that high total was an exception, not a new norm, Kanzeparova said. Robust humpback returns began in the 2010s, with previous decades seeing harvests more in line with the current forecast.
Kanzeparova said that over the last 11 years, salmon harvests in Russia’s Far East have nearly all exceeded initial forecasts. VNIRO Director Kirill Kolonchin said that he’s cautiously optimistic the harvest total could be as high as 320,000 MT.
The final preseason projection of the season will be issued in late March.
Photo courtesy of Konstantin Baidin/Shutterstock
