In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. and China imported less shrimp than they did during the same period in 2023.
According to figures presented by Global Shrimp Forum Managing Director Willem van der Pijl at the 2024 Global Shrimp Forum (GSF), held recently in Utrecht, Netherlands, China has imported less shrimp year over year four quarters in a row. That trend continued into July this year, with imports by volume down 8 percent on the corresponding month of last year.
As for the U.S., van der Pijl said that the country bought less shrimp in the first half of 2023, but increases came in the third and fourth quarters, followed by a slight year-over-year increase in Q1 2024. However, the second quarter of this year brought a 7 percent decrease.
“Average import prices are not dropping at the same rate, but they still [have] some volatility, and [despite] slight increases in the beginning of this year, they are still operating at a very low point,” he said.
Complicating any attempt to accurately predict future import/export trends, CenSea Co-President Nate Torch told GSF he believes “all the trends have changed” in the U.S. shrimp market and everything that experts had learned up to the Covid-19 pandemic is no longer relevant, as historical predictabilities are “out the door,” Torch said.
“We've actually had two years of some of the lowest prices we've ever seen, and they consistently stay low. But, why isn't there consumption at the low prices? Are we finding out maybe it's not price that drives consumption of shrimp?” he said. “We need to find a way to increase shrimp consumption in the world because the ability to do it, the technology, and the commitment around the world are there to sell more of the best protein there is.”
Other factors have also contributed to downward trade trends, Torch said, such as shipping disruptions and high production costs.
“A lot of corporations are forcing their import department suppliers to keep inventories lower; it’s more expensive [now],” he said. “We've all been trying to run our businesses tighter, and what we're finding right now is we're going to have to fill these holes in and buy more. The [sourcing] prices overseas are, for the first time, starting to see an upward trend. [However,] everybody is used to the really low prices right now. It's going to be really tough to change that trend.”
Domestic economic patterns also represent another significant problem for American consumers, mostly related to inflationary pressures.
“People just don't have the extra spending money, and there's a premonition that seafood is expensive. So, they bypass the seafood counter when they're in the retail store. They're not thinking about buying shrimp; they're thinking about value,” he said. “They're looking at chicken and other lower-priced proteins, not realizing the value of what we have. So, going forward, if we can educate populations to the values and benefits of shrimp, we can go a long way.”
To that end, the Global Shrimp Council announced the launch of the “Global Shrimp – Happy Protein” marketing campaign at the 2024 GSF, aimed at getting more people to eat more shrimp, starting with the U.S. market.
“Research tells us there are lots of discussions about protein and sustainability, that shoppers want true honesty, and also that they want to be inspired. We need to listen to the consumer,” Miguel Barcenas, who is leading the campaign, said.
Raising consumption in the U.S. by just 1 pound per capita would raise the country’s shrimp demand by around 150,000 metric tons (MT) annually, according to van der Pijl. With both the U.S. and China sporting such large consumer bases, even slight consumption upticks in either market would go a long way toward aiding the struggling global shrimp industry.
Commenting on challenges in the Chinese market, Roda International Vice President of Business Development Pablo Resnik told GSF that at the start of the year, following questions about metabisulfites found shrimp imports from Ecuador and the subsequent introduction of stricter inspection protocols in Chinese ports, consumer attitudes shifted, with a negative impact felt in online retail channels.
Similar to the U.S. market, economic troubles domestically have also hurt shrimp’s play in the market, with consumers attempting to reduce household expenditures as much as possible, Resnik said.
At the same time, with a lot of Chinese importers losing money in 2023, there have been strong shifts toward low-risk strategies.
“Instead of buying huge volumes and building stock, [importers] now buy slowly – small batches to reduce the risk. Something we also see is importers are trying to reduce the amount of financing they use for their imports,” he said. “So now, in general, the Chinese market is entering a new era where the strategy of purchasing is decided by supply and demand.”
