The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has forecast an above-average salmon harvest of 161.4 million salmon in 2016.
Based on the previous five and 10-year averages, after accounting for even/odd year pink salmon fluctuations, this would be the state's largest even-year harvest since 2010. The forecast is 4 percent above the combined 2015 forecast for sockeye, coho, and keta salmon and the 2014 pink salmon forecast.
Forecasts for coho and keta salmon are up compared to last year’s harvest, while ADF&G expects fewer pink, sockeye, and Chinook salmon to be harvested. However harvests of pink and sockeye salmon were exceptionally large in 2015.
In total, the department estimates Alaska will harvest 465,000 Chinnok, 47.7 million sockeye, 4.4 million coho, 90.1 million pinks and 18.7 million keta.
Its forecasts for Chinook, sockeye, and coho have been relatively accurate over the past six years. Forecasts of pink salmon have tended to be lower than actual harvests, while keta projections tended to be higher than actual harvests. However, there is considerable variability within each species from year to year.
With regard to prices, ADF&G believes there is reason for “cautious optimism.” This is because where key variables such as supply, currency conditions, and trade restrictions acted to reduce Alaska salmon prices in 2015, this year the competing supply is expected to be lower and currency conditions have stabilized, and have even improved slightly against the yen and euro.
Canned inventories remain elevated, but other products are likely to find more demand due to less expected competing supply and investments in promotional efforts during recent years, it said.
The estimated value of Alaska's 2015 commercial salmon harvest was USD 414 million (EUR 367 million). Of this, sockeye was most valuable salmon species, with statewide harvests grossing around USD 198 million (EUR 175.5 million).
