U.S. restaurant operators are facing some of the most turbulent economic headwinds since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to experts presenting at the 2026 Global Seafood Market Conference in Hollywood, Florida, U.S.A., as overall restaurant traffic declines and consumers are preparing food at home more often.
“The new normal is flat,” Circana Vice President of Perimeter Melissa Rodriguez said during a 20 January panel focusing on foodservice trends, noting that Circana projects overall foodservice sales to grow a measly 0.03 percent from 2025 to 2027.
As 2026 begins, consumer sentiment remains low amid ongoing economic worries, Rodriguez said, including the fact that foodservice costs 4.3 times more away from home than for at-home occasions. As a result, only 14 percent of meal occasions were sourced away from home in 2025, Rodriguez said.
Total seafood servings declined in restaurants, too, driven by a shellfish servings decline of 5.9 percent last year. Sales by volume of seafood to restaurants fell 3.3 percent in 2025, compared to an overall foodservice volume decline of 1.6 percent. At the same time, sales of seafood by value spiked 5.6 percent in overall foodservice and 4.4 percent in restaurants.
Despite the headwinds, restaurant and non-commercial foodservice operators are trying to innovate to grow sales this year.
Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A.-based Captain D’s is focusing on limited-time offers (LTOs) in 2026 to accomplish that goal.
“Where you really get value is through an LTO. We need to have a compelling item that appeals to everyone,” Captain D’s Chief Supply Chain Officer Janet Duckham said, explaining that value does not necessarily mean the lowest price.
Other forms of innovation Captain D’s has implemented include a small-format, take-away-only restaurant it has in the Bronx in New York City, which is realizing significant growth, according to Duckham. As the cost of steel and other building supplies soars, restaurant operators have to “get creative,” she said.
Captain D’s is particularly attempting to attract millennial, elapsed users, as well as its core customers, who are around 45 years old.
“We have to be good from an execution standpoint; we have to give them a perfect experience. All the seafood buying in the world [doesn’t matter]; we have to execute at the restaurant level,” Duckham said.
On the other hand, Orlando, Florida, U.S.A.-based Red Lobster is evolving to offer fewer new promotions, instead innovating within existing promotional frameworks.
“We are taking what we do really well and making it more abundant … and giving more options,” Red Lobster Chief Supply Chain Officer Matt Livesay said.
For instance, the restaurant chain’s current Lobsterfest promotion is the “best time of year to come in and experience a lot of different options,” the company said in a release.
New options on the Lobsterfest menu include “Create Your Own Lobster Lover's Dream,” which allows customers to mix and match two or three lobster selections “to create the Lobsterfest plate of your dream.” It also includes Lobster Pasta au Gratin, which is a Maine and langostino lobster tossed with cavatappi pasta in a creamy lobster cheese sauce, as well as Crispy Dragon Teriyaki Lobster, which includes crispy Maine lobster tail tossed in a sweet and spicy teriyaki sauce.
Red Lobster is purposely being more “edgy” with flavors and preparations that appeal to younger demographics without alienating its core baby boomer customers, Livesay said.
“I think we are trying to be a little more surgical in how we go after younger demographics … through bringing bolder flavors to the menu using very familiar protein platforms and types of combinations that our established guests are used to,” he said.
The chain rolled out an aggressive marketing strategy over the last 12 to 18 months to attract the “next generation of guests,” but Livesay said the company has pulled back on that strategy somewhat.
“What we’ve found is that the environment isn’t ready it for it yet … with inflation and with some of the uncertainty and just the nature of all the factors in play, so we’ve retrenched a little bit,” he said. “We are making sure we are preserving the guests we have and trying to manage the value equation.”
In addition to restaurants, seafood suppliers should be looking to non-commercial foodservice buyers in 2026, where there is a lot of growth opportunity, Performance Food Group Vice President of Procurement Michael Seidel said.
“Hotel and lodging has come back … business has come back,” Seidel said, adding that colleges and universities are also focusing on their foodservice programs to attract students. “They all want to have the biggest and the best programs, and that includes seafood.”
Additionally, supermarket delis are competing better in seafood, Rodriguez said, with products such as grouper and cod bites becoming the “perfect deli solution,” as they are protein-packed and tailor-made for today's grab-and-go consumer.
