The Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO) published its preliminary forecast for the 2021 salmon season, which starts on 1 June in Russia’s Far East.
The current forecast projects a catch of 459,300 metric tons (MT), higher than the projections for 2020 and much higher than the actual catch last year.
The figures were confirmed at the session of the Industry Forecast Council of the Russian Federal Agency for Fisheries in late January, the agency’s press service said.
The preliminary forecast is one of the highest of the two past decades, with the only larger forecasts occurring in 2018 (490,000 MT) and 2019 (461,000 MT). The largest in Russia’s history was 2018, with a final catch of 667,000 MT.
Traditionally, the largest share of the catch will come from the Kamchatka region, which has a forecasted catch of 359,000 MT; followed by Sakhalin with 45,000 MT; the Khabarovsk region with 37,000 MT; and with the Magadan, Chukotka, and Primorye regions totaling 17,7000 MT combined.
Regarding species, the leader is going to once again be humpback salmon with an estimated 322,300 MT, then chum with 93,500 MT, and sockeye with 32,100 MT. Catch of coho, chinook, and cherry salmon is predicted to be 11,400 MT combined.
In 2020, the actual salmon catch was much lower than the expectations, despite a forecast based on models that proved to effective in previous years. Scientists’ calculations were distorted by climate change-related processes occurring in the Pacific ocean.
The salmon forecast this year is based on improved methods, Ilya Shestakov, head of the Federal Agency for Fisheries, said. New data on salmon stocks and the results of surveys of juvenile salmon – as well as the analysis of the climate in the Northern Pacific – have been taken into account.
A preliminary forecast is subject to a subsequent review in accordance with data from new surveys to be carried out just before the start of the season.
“Assessments of stock accomplished by scientists let us be rather optimistic about the coming season,” VNIRO Kamchatka Branch Head Nina Shpigalskaya told newspaper Argumenty i Fakty. “In case there will be no extraordinary situations like in winter 2019-2020, we will see better results than last year.”
Photo courtesy of Konstantin Baidin/Shutterstock
