Alaska forecasts “excellent” sockeye salmon run for Upper Cook Inlet, Copper River

A grizzly bear opening its mouth to catch a salmon in Alaska
The officials forecast shows a total run of 6.9 million sockeye for the Upper Cook Inlet in 2025, with roughly 4.93 million fish available for harvest | Photo courtesy of Janice Chen/Shutterstock
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The U.S. state of Alaska has forecast an “excellent” sockeye salmon run for the state’s Upper Cook Inlet fishery, but forecasts for the state’s other salmon runs are mixed so far.

State officials forecast a total run of 6.9 million sockeye for the Upper Cook Inlet in 2025, with roughly 4.93 million fish available for harvest. 

That would build off an unexpectedly strong run in 2024.

Last year’s run was estimated to include 6.64 million sockeye salmon – 1.5 million more fish than forecast before the season. With an average price per pound of USD 1.70 (EUR 1.63), the Upper Cook Inlet fishery produced USD 18.7 million (EUR 17.9 million) in ex-vessel value, according to the preliminary commercial harvest estimates published by the state in October 2024.

Estimating Alaska salmon runs accurately has proven a difficult task, with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) noting in a 27 January release that “forecasts of salmon fisheries are inherently uncertain.” The forecast error for the Upper Cook Inlet has ranged from 27 percent below forecast to 45 percent above forecast over the last decade, resulting in a mean absolute percent error of 18 percent.

The state has also forecast excellent sockeye salmon runs for the Copper River and Coghill Lake. The forecast estimates a run of 2.6 million sockeye in the Copper River – roughly 55 percent above the 10-year average – with a commercial harvest of 1.9 million salmon. For Coghill Lake, ADF&G forecasts a run of 331,000 sockeye, which would be 57 percent above average. The forecast estimates a commercial harvest of 301,000 fish.

While not quite at the excellent level forecast for Upper Cook Inlet, Copper River, and Coghill Lake, ADF&G has also forecast a strong sockeye run for Bristol Bay. The state expects a run of roughly 51.3 million sockeye – 16 percent below the 10-year average – with 36.3 million fish available for harvest.

The runs for the Chignik Management Area, however, is forecast to be weak in 2025. Officials estimate a run of 1.3 million fish, with 684,000 available for harvest.

The state has also released forecasts for some of the state’s non-sockeye salmon fisheries.

For the Kodiak region, ADF&G forecast an excellent pink salmon run, with a point estimate of 31.8 million fish available for harvest. For the Copper River chum salmon run, the state is forecasting a run of 36,000 fish. That would rank it as a weak season for the chum fishery, about 25 percent below the 10-year average.

Prince William Sound is set to have strong runs across both its pink and chum salmon seasons. ADF&G forecast a run of 18.6 million pink salmon – 8 percent above the 10-year average – and a run of 613,000 chum salmon – 18 percent above the 10-year average. That would result in a point estimate of 16.8 million pink salmon and 443,000 chum salmon available for harvest.

Alaska’s salmon sector is hoping for a strong year after a difficult few years for the state’s seafood industry.

According to a NOAA Fisheries economic snapshot published in 2024, Alaska’s commercial seafood sector saw its profitability dip 50 percent from 2022 to 2023. Overall, the sector suffered a USD 1.8 billion (EUR 1.7 billion) loss in that period.

“The Alaska seafood industry is a major contributor to the U.S. seafood sector,” Alaska Fisheries Science Center Director Robert Foy said when the snapshot was released in October 2024. “The social and economic ramifications of Alaska’s losses have reverberated down the West Coast and across the country.”

According to preliminary data compiled by ADF&G in October, commercial fishers landed 228,515 Chinook salmon, 42 million sockeye salmon, 1.7 million coho salmon, 40 million pink salmon, and 17.2 million chum salmon for a total of 101.2 million salmon – down 56 percent from the 2023 total harvest of 232.2 million salmon. That resulted in a total estimated ex-vessel value of USD 304 million (EUR 291 million) in 2024, down from USD 398 million (EUR 381 million) in 2023. 

“The 2024 all-species commercial salmon harvest of approximately 101 million fish and 450 million pounds was the third lowest on record for total fish harvested and the lowest on record for total pounds harvested,” ADF&G said in a summary of the 2024 salmon harvest. “Adjusted for inflation, the 2024 ex-vessel value estimate of USD 304 million was the third-lowest ex-vessel value reported since 1975.”

According to ADF&G, “market conditions significantly impacted the pricing of salmon statewide and consequently, the value of the harvest.” That’s consistent with NOAA Fisheries’ economic snapshot of the state’s seafood sector, which concluded that high seafood inventories put downward pressure on prices.


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