The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has forecast a strong Bristol Bay salmon run in 2025, which could help offset low salmon runs that fishers in the area suffered in 2024.
The ADF&G is estimating between 51.3 million and 65.6 million fish for next year’s salmon run. A run of 51.3 million sockeye salmon would allow for a potential harvestable surplus of about 36.4 million fish: 34.8 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.6 million fish in the South Peninsula June fishery, according to the department.
“A Bristol Bay inshore harvest of this size is less than the most recent 10-year average harvest of 40.9 million fish, but 50 percent greater than the long-term average harvest of 23.3 million fish,” the ADF&G said.
The ADF&G calculated the percentiles of total runs from 1961 to 2023 and noted that since 2005, the department’s preseason forecasts have underforecast the actual run by 15 percent on average.
Even if the prediction is forecast accurately, the estimate is ...
