The forecast for global seafood trade in 2015 looks to be mostly fair as prices settle and soften across various species markets following a watershed year for farmed fish, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and its "Biannual Report on Global Food Markets."
For the first time ever, contributions to fish food supply from the aquaculture sector trumped that of wild fish in 2014; subsequently, the farmed fish market also played a large part in facilitating an overall 5 percent increase in fish prices last year, as noted by the FAO report. Farmed fish prices gained 12 percent in 2014 while captured fish prices reported no significant change.
The shrimp market – which contributed strongly to the 5 percent increase in the FAO Fish Price Index for 2014 by capitalizing on low Thai harvests and buoyant world demand – will experience a leveling out of sorts this year as increased production exerts downward pressure on price tags for the species, especially in the key areas such as the European Union and Japan.
Salmon prices have also been revised downward for 2015 because of assumed sustained production growth in Norway and an overreliance on the U.S. market to absorb volumes, the report said. In 2014, fresh salmon prices took a dip in what the report characterized as a reflection of the import ban and a deteriorating economic situation in the Russian Federation.
While shrimp and salmon contend with possible price plunges, it’s expected that anchoveta catches will be on the upswing in 2015 – “good news for the growing number of aquaculture producers who use anchoveta as feedstuffs in their operations,” noted the FAO. Moreover, early indications spell out hope for the tuna market as demand picks up steam.
Canned tuna prices probably won’t weaken any further in the short term, the FAO argued, not since imports of the product were up in January 2015 by 9 percent in Australia; 22 percent in Japan; and 5 percent in the United States when compared to the same month last year. Additionally, summer demand for fresh tuna is expected to firm up for the United States, and European Union demand for tuna from the Maldives has seen an uptick at the onset of this year in the face of a ban on all imports from competitor Sri Lanka.
From a consumer standpoint, the demand for fish continues to strengthen as people recognize and celebrate the health benefits that come with its regular consumption. Direct human consumption – which already makes up for 85 percent of all fish uses – is expected to increase by 2 percent to 147.5 million metric tons (MT), and will “result in only a slight increase in per capita fish intake, from 20.0 kg in 2014 to 20.1 kg in 2015, a consequence of firm fish product prices and slowing income growth in several important markets,” according to the FAO.
Prophecy may come to pass for aquaculture operations in 2015 with an anticipated recovery in world wild fish catches set to yield a 9 percent rebound in the usage of fish as feed, concluded the FAO. Thanks in part to a 5 percent expansion in aquaculture (74.3 million MT) last year, overall fish production increased by 1 percent to 164.5 million MT despite a 2 percent contraction in wild fish output to 90.0 million MT.
The report attributed the 5.4 percent boost in the value of fish exports (USD 143.9 billion; EUR 128.2 billion) in 2014 in part to strong increases in fishmeal prices, rampant demand in Eastern Asia and considerable shrimp exports courtesy of Asia, Latin American and the Caribbean.
Explore the report in full below. Toggle to page 66 for the overview on fish and fishery products.
