The U.S. is experiencing a “K-shaped” economic recovery as 2026 remains in its early stages, which will drive purchases of both value and premium products this year, according to Christian Lawrence, the head of Americas and energy markets research at Dutch financial services firm Rabobank.
Consumer confidence for the majority of Americans has “plummeted” as a result of ongoing inflation, with Americans paying 27 percent more for food than they were a few years ago, Lawrence said at the 2026 Global Seafood Market Conference (GSMC), which took place 18 to 22 January in Hollywood, Florida, U.S.A.
As the U.S. tries to dig itself out of that hole, “we are very much in a two-speed economy,” Lawrence said, noting that 49 percent of all consumption was attributed to the top 10 percent of earning households in 2025.
“That is the highest degree of concentration that we’ve seen … going back decades,” he said, adding that upper-income groups are “in a fantastic position and premium products are likely to perform well.”
Lower-income groups, meanwhile, are struggling and middle-income consumers are seeking value.
“It’s a K-shaped economy, so the barbell of premium versus value is key for companies selling to consumers,” Lawrence said.
To take advantage of the trend, Datassential Senior Vice President of Customer Experience Kelley Fechner, who also spoke at the 2026 GSMC, said that restaurants should consider offering more limited time offers (LTOs), attracting consumers who are looking for value.
“How do you get consumers to get excited about seafood if we are not talking to them and those LTO promotions are not about seafood?” she said.
A similar economic situation is playing out in China, as London, U.K.-based market research firm Euromonitor International recently found that consumer concerns in the country are creating a nearly identical K-shaped trend, in which premium and cheaper products are likely to succeed this year and mid-priced products are likely to struggle.
As for its effect on seafood, Euromonitor said that “high-end consumption has supported the growth of crustacean products,” but some price-sensitive consumers “tend to choose more economical fish species in retail channels or wait for promotions to make a purchase, which has, to some extent, curbed retail growth.”
While noting that seafood sales in China have enjoyed “overall growth,” sales patterns are shifting due to several factors, including “cost considerations, climate change, and price hikes, together with the need for convenience when cooking,” Euromonitor told SeafoodSource in a statement.
