Coming off a surprisingly strong 2024, the U.S. economy is likely to enjoy growth again in 2025 – albeit at a more modest pace – according to Rabobank Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Christian Lawrence.
However, Lawrence warned there are several factors that could stymie that predicted growth and cast uncertainty onto the U.S. economy.
Lawrence, who gave a presentation titled “2025 Macroeconomic Outlook – A return to ‘shellfish’ trade policy” at the 2025 Global Seafood Market Conference in Palm Desert, California, U.S.A., on 21 January, said that the U.S.’s strong economic performance in 2024 was largely due to slowing inflation on goods, real wage growth that brought average salaries closer in line to the cost of living, and healthy unemployment rates.
This resulted in few drops in consumer spending throughout the year – a trend that played out across several industries, including at U.S. retail stores, where year-over-year total food and beverage sales rose 1.3 percent to USD 922 billion (EUR 903 billion) – and GDP growth of nearly 3 percent.
"The economy performed really well in 2024, and the main driver was consumers, who are still doing well," Lawrence said.
Though Lawrence expects both unemployment and inflation rates to be higher in the U.S. in 2025 – above 3 percent and just under 5 percent, respectively – he still anticipates the economy will grow, the U.S. dollar will remain strong, and the Federal Reserve will largely leave interest rates alone.
Nevertheless, factors like rising credit card debt, depleted savings, and falling supply and demand in the U.S. housing market could throw a wrench into those predictions if they get too severe ...