Without an increase in U.K. fishing quotas, all current possible Brexit scenarios will lead to declines in output and trade for the country’s fishing fleet, claims new briefing paper “Fishing in Deep Waters.”
In its assessment of the possible impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s fishing industry, the report compiled by the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO), an independent partnership between the University of Sussex and Chatham House, states that without additional catching opportunities, the sector will be in a worse place due to increased tariffs and non-tariff measures, including potentially increased food safety checks or paperwork, with the EU market.
Produced by University of Sussex senior lecturer in economics Michael Gasiorek and Suzannah Walmsley, fisheries and aquaculture business development manager at U.K. marine environmental consultancy ABPmer, the report also finds that a so-called “no-deal” Brexit (i.e. no official trade plans in place with the EU) without quota changes would hit the U.K. fishing industry by causing a drop in output, exports and imports.
It calculates that this would cause an increase in prices for all of the 10 biggest-selling fish species analyzed, by as much as 6.2 percent in the case of haddock; and a decrease in export by as much as 15.8 percent in the case of hake.
At the same time, it observes that improved access to other markets from Brexit will not compensate for the loss of tariff-free access to the EU where the United Kingdom currently exports more than 80 percent of its cod, crab, hake, nephrops, saithe and scallops.
While the report states that successfully renegotiating quota levels to be more reflective of fish distribution in national waters (rather than historic fishing patterns which heavily influence current quotas) could see the amount of fish U.K. fleets can take from their waters more than double in the case of some species such as herring, it further adds that if the benefits reaped from taking back control of U.K. waters is achieved at the expense of EU fishermen or customers, then the United Kingdom could expect retaliatory behavior in other sectors or calls for compensation.
“The fishing industry was very much to the fore of the Brexit campaign and government ministers continue to make confident promises of taking back control of U.K. waters. The reality is that fisheries is one of the EU’s most complex and politicized policy areas and the government will find it extremely difficult to reach an agreement with the EU,” said Gasiorek.
“Changing the current unfavorable quota system will be key in this, but will meet significant resistance from the EU. A no-deal Brexit with all quotas determined by zonal allocation would have a huge boost on the U.K. fishing fleet but its corresponding negative impact on the EU fishing fleet means that U.K. negotiators will face an extremely difficult challenge to reel this in.”
“Fishing in Deep Waters” highlights that U.K. waters encompass productive fishing grounds and are important for other EU member states’ fishing fleets. These nations currently land an estimated 749,000 metric tons (MT) of fish and shellfish worth GBP 575 million (USD 755.2 million, EUR 646.5 million) from the U.K. EEZ. In contrast, the U.K. fleet lands only 79,000 MT worth GBP 96 million (USD 126.1 million, EUR 107.9 million) from other EU member states’ waters, and a further 45,000 MT worth GBP 54 million from neighboring third-countries.
According to figures for 2016, the U.K. fishing fleet’s domestic and overseas landings total 701,000 MT of fish and shellfish worth GBP 936 million (USD 1.2 billion, EUR 1.1 billion), while the total turnover from the country’s seafood processing sector is estimated at almost GBP 4.4 billion (USD 5.8 billion, EUR 5 billion).
The report also states that the trade in fish and fishery products is important for the United Kingdom, with much of the fleet’s landings being exported, and a large amount of what is consumed is imported. Imports of fish and fish preparations amounted to a total volume of 730,000 MT in 2016, with 441,000 MT exported.
Imports mainly comprise tuna, cod, salmon and shrimp, reflecting U.K. consumer tastes; while exports are led by farmed salmon, mackerel and herring. The main countries for imports are Iceland, China and EU member states such as Germany and Denmark; whereas the EU member states of France, Spain and Netherlands, alongside the United States are the United Kingdom’s most important seafood export markets.
