Experts at Pacific Marine Expo in Seattle, Washington rolled out a preliminary report on the 2018 Alaska fishing season, one that will go down in the books as a historically low catch at historically high value.
While final numbers are not yet available, Garret Everidge, a fisheries economist for the McDowell Group, said the strong value on Alaska seafood already jumps off the page.
“The interesting dynamic is that preliminary numbers show that it will be one of the smallest harvests in recent decades and probably the fifth- or sixth-most valuable harvest. Everything we caught was worth a lot,” Everidge said.
Bristol Bay saw a run of 62.3 million fish – the largest since records started in 1893 – for an ex-vessel value of USD 281 million (EUR 245.9 million). But other than big hatchery chum catches in Southeast Alaska, the blockbuster news stops there.
Despite Bristol Bay outperforming its forecast by 21 percent, fisheries statewide yielded just 114 million of the 149 million forecasted fish, and warmer waters meant runs were late across the state.
Meanwhile, Everidge pointed out that Russia had a record salmon harvest at 1.49 billion pounds, and farmed salmon yield is trending up, but demand for salmon does not seem to be diminishing in the face of the strong supply.
“In general, salmon demand is very high. H&G product is about a dollar over what processors were able to get last year. Some roe was sold this summer at over USD 30 a pound,” Everidge said.
Farmed salmon prices have held as well, which is good news for wild markets because too great a price discrepancy between farmed and wild tends to push consumers towards farmed fillets.
ASMI Communications Director Jeremy Woodrow said strong messaging has helped keep the Alaska seafood demand high despite global competition.
“We have a great story to tell, and we believe that we do have a superior product,” Woodrow said. “We set the global standard on what sustainability means [in] the way we manage our fisheries and they way we certify our fisheries.”
Storm clouds gathering on the horizon of Alaska seafood include Pacific cod stocks, which continued a multi-year decline this season; a trend that analysts expect to continue next year, with a supply bottleneck contributing to higher prices.
Everidge also pointed to the trade war between the U.S. and China as a growing concern. He said that while some Alaska seafood products are currently excluded from the tariffs list – chum headed and gutted, cod headed and gutted among them – fishmeal and other live and fresh products are being slapped with tariffs.
Last year, Alaska exported USD 70 million (EUR 61.2 million) of fishmeal to China, a volume that could see a slip because of tariffs. Some Alaska-caught products shipped to China for reprocessing and then sent back to the U.S. market are also subject to tariffs.
“As of right now, although some of the key, salmon, pollock, and Pacific cod products are excluded, flatfish and some other sole products are currently being taxed by those U.S. import tariffs,” Everidge said.
The tariff currently stands at 10 percent, but is slated to jump to 25 percent before the end of the year. Economists are also keeping an eye on a strengthening dollar, which can slow foreign exports of U.S. goods.
Averages taken from 2016-17 put Alaska’s yearly total seafood harvest at about 5.9 billion pounds, with a value of USD 1.9 billion (EUR 1.66 billion).
