Bristol Bay, Alaska’s sockeye salmon season opens 1 June, and the annual guessing game on how much processors will pay per pound is underway. The mood seems to be one of cautious optimism, as indicators point to last season’s strong price holding.
Bristol Bay’s big buyers settled on a base price USD 1 (EUR 0.85) per pound in 2017, a positive development after the fishery clawed back from USD 0.50 (EUR 0.42) per pound in 2015. When it was all said and done, with incentives for proper treatment of fish, top-paying processors forked over USD 1.61 (EUR 1.38) per pound in 2018.
The rise in price has coincided with historically large harvests of around 37.7 million sockeye each over the past two years, well over the 10-year average of around 29 million fish. Alaska Department of Fish and Game predicts an even higher catch in 2018 at 39 million, which would be the third-largest in Bristol Bay’s history.
Despite some market pressure from Canadian and Russian wild stocks, analysts do not predict a drop-off in price for Bristol Bay fish, which has happened in the past after a string high-yield seasons with higher prices. Garrett Evridge, an economist for the McDowell Group, said strong wild Alaska sockeye demand has largely been able to move the robust harvests of the past few seasons through the market.
“If you look at salmon that’s trading from last season, it appears there isn’t much on the market, and the price is still pretty strong,” Evridge said.
Evridge’s observations hold with comments from a source at one of Bristol Bay’s large processors, who indicated they have all but cleared their freezers of last season’s catch. Both Leader Creek Fisheries and Silver Bay Seafoods, LLC, paid out bonuses to their fleets, which means frozen fillets sold well through the season, and heavy stock in freezers is not dragging the market down.
High farmed salmon prices are part of the equation. In early May, the Urner Barry fresh farmed salmon index had creeped up close to a five-year high, sitting at USD 6.55 (EUR 5.61). Evridge said that bodes well at the point of sale.
“From a consumer’s perspective, if I come up to a glass display case and see wild Alaska sockeye salmon next to farmed salmon and the values are similar, I tend to think that wild Alaska will do pretty well. But when those two prices start to part significantly — if farmed salmon is USD 5 [EUR 4.28] and Alaska salmon is USD 10 [EUR 8.57] — there’s probably a demand impact,” he said.
But, Evridge added, no one really know until the major processors make an official decision, which usually happens around mid-July.
“I haven’t heard any processor say, ‘Oh, by the way, we’re going to pay a buck a pound.' "It’s still really up in the air, but the general tone seems to be a year that’s consistent with last year," Evridge said. "Nobody is dreading this season, I know that much."
