The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) released their annual prediction for the upcoming salmon harvest in the state, with an overall dip from 2018 on a poor forecast for pink salmon, offset by another strong sockeye run predicted for Bristol Bay.
The 2018 predicted harvest for all species is 148.9 million fish, significantly lower than the 2017 all-species total of 225.7 million. The major hit came in a pink salmon catch predicted at 70.2 million, which would be fewer than half the catch of 141 million in 2017.
Despite the grim outlook, biologists admit that pink runs – the bulk of which enter Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound – are extremely hard to forecast.
“In contrast to a species like sockeye or chinook salmon, pinks are generally far more difficult to forecast because pinks don’t have any siblings that come back and can telegraph what a run might be like the following year,” said Richard Brenner, a salmon stock assessment biologist for the ADFG. “Pink salmon always and without exception spend exactly one year in the ocean, so we don’t have a foreshadowing of what a run might look like.”
Brenner and his colleagues, Andrew Munro and Jennifer Shriver, edited the 110-page report on the upcoming season, which compiles data from across the state and includes final figures on the 2017 catch.
Even years tend to bring smaller pink runs, and Brenner said out-migrating data and a poor 2016 brood year do not bode well, adding that even with that information fishermen could get a surprise.
“We’re predicting an average harvest of about 23 million pink salmon from Southeast. I guess what I’d like to emphasize is the uncertainty,” he said. “We’re talking about fish returning from a very weak brood year, 2016, around the state, and there’s a lot of uncertainty for what might return for Southeast and Kodiak area and Prince William Sound. There have been years where weak brood years produce fairly strong runs, but we’ve got pretty chaotic ocean conditions.”
Bristol Bay, meanwhile, looks to keep up its robust string of seasons with a predicted harvest at nearly 38 million fish, not too far off last year’s mammoth season of 38.8 million.
