Bluefin volume up, demand soft on weak yen

Wholesale prices at Tsukiji in Tokyo on 11 January were down several hundred yen per kilogram (kg) on all tuna species, reflecting the post-holiday lull. Fresh imported bluefin sold at JPY 2,100 (USD 20.63, EUR 15.07) per kg. Frozen Southern bluefin, bigeye and yellowfin averaged JPY 1,575 (USD 15.47, EUR 11), JPY 915 (USD 9, EUR 6.57) and JPY 735 (USD 7.22, EUR 5.27), respectively.

There was a dramatic decline in the top price of a bluefin on the first day of trading of the new year at Tsukiji, down from JPY 155.4 million (USD 1.5 million, EUR 1.1 million) to JPY 7.36 million (USD 72,390/EUR 52,812), the lowest price in five years. Since the same sushi chain buyer has bested all offers three years running now, it’s likely that other bidders simply gave up, despite the lure of international publicity.

If the price of the first bluefin sold at the auction is an omen of the year, it’s not a good one in this case. With the yen weak and a hike in the national consumption tax planned for April, slack demand is likely. Those dissatisfied with this prognostication can always turn to another tuna for luck. At Yebisu Shrine in Nishinomiya City, Hyogo Prefecture, pressing a coin onto a whole bluefin displayed there as a New Year offering assures a prosperous year. Yebisu is the god of fishermen and merchants.

Bluefin was cheaper and more plentiful in Japan in 2013 than in the previous year. Through October, imports declared to Japan Customs amounted to 9,339 metric tons (MT) valued at JPY 14.8 billion (USD 145 million, EUR 106 million), up 27 percent in volume but just 6 percent in value over the same period in 2012. The average price of imported frozen bluefin declared to Japan Customs in October of 2013 (the latest figures released) was JPY 1,538 (USD 15, EUR 11) per kg, similar to the September price, but down 9 percent from October 2012. As usual, imports peaked in September in preparation for New Year holiday sales, and then declined by the end of October.

Taiwanese vessels supply much of Japan’s wild catch, but farmed bluefin (both imported and domestic) now commands a nearly 70 percent market share.

Domestically, closed-cycle bluefin breeding is moving from the research stage to commercialization. Japan’s Kinki University, which developed the technology, opened two restaurant outlets in 2013, in Osaka and Tokyo, to publicize and profit from their research. Toyoreizo, a Mitsubishi Corp. subsidiary, has also established an aquaculture facility in Nagasaki Prefecture to raise closed-cycle bluefin. Planned shipment volume this year is 400 MT.

Major imported farmed bluefin producers are Mexico and Australia, with the fresh supply alternating between the two seasonally. Mexican farmed tuna from Baja California is shipped by air to Tsukiji from September to May. In the northern summer, farmed production from Japan and Mexico is reduced, and buyers switch to Southern bluefin tuna from Australia.

Mexico has become a low-cost producer with both juvenile tuna and sardines for feed close at hand, and with lower labor costs than either Japan or Australia. Supply of Mexican bluefin increased fivefold in the year.

Conversely, Australia’s Southern bluefin suppliers have predicted soft demand. They cite increased use of farmed salmon as a sushi or sashimi item, while the weak yen means Japanese buyers are being outbid by their counterparts in Europe, Korea and North America. European and American sushi shops, however, often offer cheaper yellowfin tuna. In Japan, bigeye is popular in place of bluefin, with overall sales volumes about 10 times that for bluefin.