In line with increased harvests brought by a warm winter and a weakening of the kroner against the major currencies, Norway’s farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) exports in the first quarter of 2015 increased 11 percent year-on-year to reach a total of 243,300 metric tons (MT). However, as widely expected, exports have begun to slow in Q2, with the Scandinavian country reporting a total volume of 82,000 MT for April, which was on par with the corresponding month of last year.
In value terms, Norway exported NOK 3.5 billion (EUR 414.5 million; USD 465 million) worth of salmon in April, down 9 percent year-on-year.
The increased output in Q1 saw the average export price for the period drop 9 percent or NOK 4.12 (EUR 0.49; USD 0.55) to NOK 42.55 (EUR 5.04; USD 5.65) per kilogram (kg). This fell further in April to NOK 39.93 (EUR 4.73; USD 5.31) per kg, which was 12 percent lower than in April 2014.
For the first four months of the year, Norway exported 342,700 MT of salmon, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year.
Production forecasts anticipate Norway’s output growing at a rate between 4 and 5 percent this year to around 1.2 million MT. Exports are expected to follow a similar growth trend, surpassing 1 million MT.
Last year, the country exported 999,000 MT of salmon, a gain of 4 percent on its export total for 2013. In terms of value, these exports totaled NOK 43.9 billion (EUR 5.2 billion; USD 5.8 billion), which was 11 percent higher than in 2013.
Exports to the EU, the most important market for Norwegian salmon, continued to grow in Q1, achieving a volume of 183,300 MT with a value of NOK 2.3 billion (EUR 272.4 million; USD 305.8 million). These totals represented increases of 22 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
For the month of April, this trade comprised a volume of 61,300 MT, an increase of 5 percent year-on-year, but the value fell to under NOK 2.6 billion (EUR 307.8 million; USD 345.6 million), a decline of 6 percent or NOK 160 million (EUR 19 million; USD 21.3 million).
For the January through April period, the EU has imported NOK 10.7 billion (EUR 1.3 billion; USD 1.4 billion) worth of Norwegian salmon, an increase of 8 percent, or NOK 821 million (EUR 97.3 million; USD 109.2 million), compared with the same period of last year. By volume, exports were up by 17 percent to 243,800 MT.
It should be noted that this trade in particular has benefited from the year-long Russian trade ban imposed by President Vladimir Putin in August last year.
Norway’s salmon exporters have also seen increasing demand in the U.S. and Asian markets this year.
The United States imported Norwegian salmon worth NOK 566 million (EUR 67.1 million; USD 75.2 million) in Q1 2015, an increase of 29 percent year-on-year. In volume terms, the market brought in 9,000 MT of salmon, an increase of 41 percent or 2,600 MT. This trend continued into April with the U.S. market importing NOK 176 million (EUR 20.9 million; USD 23.4 million) worth of salmon, an increase of 15 percent on April 2014. The imported volume increased by 27 percent to 2,900 MT.
Meanwhile, Asia imported NOK 1.9 billion (EUR 225.1 million; USD 252.6 million) worth of Norwegian salmon in Q1, an increase of 19 percent. In volume terms, it imported 38,700 MT of salmon, an increase of 41 percent. In April, the market imported 13,400 MT of salmon, up 26 percent. This had a value of NOK 84 million (EUR 10 million; USD 11.2 million), which was 16 percent more than in April 2014.
Looking ahead, analysts expect the average price for Norwegian salmon to be NOK 38.50 (EUR 4.56; USD 5.12) per kg for the remainder of this year and then to climb to NOK 40.80 (EUR 4.83; USD 5.42) per kg in 2016 in line with tighter supplies and higher demand.
Barring any production disasters, the global harvest of farmed Atlantic salmon is expected to increase by around 3 percent to 2.3 million MT in 2015 and then climb to 2.4 million MT next year.
