Prices on larger Asian black tiger shrimp are rising due to holiday buying, while prices on some smaller sizes of vannamei — particularly from Vietnam — are dropping.
U.S. retailers and other buyers have begun their annual flurry of shrimp buying for the holiday season, sending prices up around 5 percent compared to a month ago. “Most of our holiday sales are for the bigger shrimp. The tiger prices are ridiculous,” said a Northwest U.S. distributor.
Black tigers, 15 count and larger, are going for around USD 14 (EUR 10.93) wholesale per pound, peeled and deveined. Ex-warehouse prices on Asian white shrimp 15 count and larger are averaging USD 11 (EUR 8.59) per pound for shell on, headless; Asian white shrimp and premium black tigers are going for an average of USD 12 (EUR 9.39) per pound for shell on, headless, ex-warehouse. “The bigger sizes seem to be very tight and the price has stayed very firm. I don’t think we are going to see any relief [on price],” the Northwest distributor said.
However, lower prices on smaller sizes have led to increased U.S. buying. “Sizes 16/20s through 36/40s have dropped, due to importers’ inactivity,” said one Southeast U.S. distributor. As a result, import buying has picked up over the last three or four weeks. “Most people are moving to farmed Asian white shrimp because of high tiger prices. Indian and Vietnamese whites are dropping a little to increase buying,” the Southeast U.S. distributor said.
U.S. anti-dumping duty tariffs on Vietnamese shrimp have also led to a slight decrease in prices from the country. The average duties on Vietnamese shrimp will be 25.76 percent, after the U.S. Department of Commerce’s final decision on dumping allegations in September. “On the smaller sizes, there is some tariff relief that I have heard of, but it is not significant. Prices are down around 5 percent from a month ago,” the Northwest distributor said.
As a result of the higher prices on larger sizes, some U.S. foodservice buyers are switching to smaller shrimp. “They are still buying shrimp; they have to have it. However, they are going down a size. If they were regularly buying 16/20s, they are moving to 21/25s,” said a Northeast U.S. distributor.
Retailers are also reviewing sizes and “taking what is available” because of prices and short supply, the distributor added.
While buyers expect prices to remain strong in the short term, global shrimp production is expected to rebound next year, which may return some normalcy to the shrimp market. Global shrimp production could reach pre-Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS) levels by 2016, according to data presented at the recent Global Aquaculture Alliance’s (GAA) Global Outlook for Aquaculture Leadership (GOAL) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
George Chamberlain, president of the GAA, predicted that global production of farmed shrimp is poised to double in the next decade from 4 million metric tons (MT) to 8 million MT, thanks to layers of sophisticated disease controls employed by the industry.
While this year is showing promising signs of recovery, to the tune of an 8 percent increase, the true rebound is still a couple of years away, according to Jim Anderson of the World Bank. “Global economic conditions are expected to be better in 2015,” said Anderson, “and the shrimp market will strengthen.”
However, higher feed prices and high risk of disease will continue, particularly in China and Southeast Asia. China, Thailand and Malaysia were hit hard by EMS: In Malaysia, production declined by 50 percent from 2010 to 2013, and Anderson said only a “partial recovery” is expected by 2016. Thailand’s production declined by 14 percent.
Global production of all farmed seafood declined by 4 percent overall in 2013 due to the persistent shrimp disease, according to Chamberlain. While the “epidemic” of EMS has been identified, there is no “silver bullet” solution, he added.
