The market for southern bluefin is down by 20 percent in 2020, according to Anthony Ciconte, the managing partner at ATLANTIS Fisheries Consulting Group, which operates a southern bluefin tuna fishery in Australia.
Japanese traders are “using a tuna supply glut to permanently shift the market lower to compensate for a drawn-out demand softening due to an aging Japanese population eating less,” Ciconte told SeafoodSource.
However, Ciconte expects prices to rise early in 2021 as Japan seeks to secure supply ahead of the Tokyo Olympic Games – assuming they take place (they were postponed a year due to the global coronavirus pandemic).
“They may as an unintended consequence end up being to close to the drop-zone as a COVID rebound is definitely a possibility and it may hit cold stores inventory right before the Olympics,” Ciconte said.
On the issue of bluefin sustainability, Ciconte is critical of Indonesian overfishing and wants China brought into the regulatory system for tuna.
“Regardless of the stock situation, it should be noted that more and more tuna fisheries, including southern bluefin tuna are being accredited as sustainable by groups like [the Marine Stewardship Council]. The sustainability question arises when you find countries like Indonesia catching way more than the agreed quota amounts, as discovered this year. That is unaccounted mortality," Ciconte said. "Countries like China, are no doubt catching bluefin on the high seas, and the best way to capture that data and to manage the impact on the stock is to admit China to the [Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna], and therefore into the regulatory framework that manages the stock for future generations.”
Despite a surge in demand for Japanese dining in China during the past few years, demand there has not reached the level it is at in Japan, according to Ciconte. He said his firm has had “some pockets of enquiry” from China as Japanese cuisine rises in popularity. Data from Japanese food trading firm Wisemattac shows that the number of Japanese restaurants in Asia grew from 10,000 in 2010 to 69,300 in 2017, while the numbers in North America grew from 14,000 to 25,300 in the same timeframe. Growth was also strong in Europe and the Middle East.
But the growing demand in China is not yet acting as a price-setting force on bluefin tuna, Ciconte said.
“Softer prices in southern bluefin tuna are driven by Japanese commerce, not China,” he said. “China’s consumption is far too low at this stage to be the target of strategic price-setting. However, the Chinese opportunity is real if prices are lower, not higher, as the Chinese will not value sashimi like the Japanese do and so therefore prices will be lower to start, and probably quality also.”
Photo courtesy of ATLANTIS Fisheries Consulting Group
