The trade war between China and the United States is taking its toll – especially on China – with a new forecast slashing estimated retail sales in both countries.
The new report from U.S. research firm eMarketer also found that e-commerce sales in America will surpass 10 percent of total sales for the first time this year.
Both the trade war and slowing auto sales in China are slowing overall retail sales, eMarketer found. Retail sales in China will grow 3.5 percent to reach USD 5.3 trillion (EUR 4.7 trillion) this year, far less than the firm’s fourth quarter 2018 forecast, which estimated that China’s retail market would grow 7.5 percent to USD 5.6 trillion (EUR 4.9 million) in 2019.
China will not surpass the U.S. in total retail sales this year, as eMarketer originally projected. However, the firm expects that will happen in 2021.
“The U.S.-China trade turmoil is even more of a concern for China now that domestic demand impacted one of the country’s largest sectors: auto,” said eMarketer Forecasting Director Monica Peart in a press release.
Thanks to the trade war, eMarketer slightly reduced its forecast for U.S. retail sales, projecting an increase of 3 percent this year (instead of the 3.2 percent growth in its first quarter 2019 forecast). Total U.S. retail sales are expected to reach nearly USD 5.5 trillion (EUR 4.8 trillion) in 2019.
Despite the slowdown in China, eMarketer still projects Chinese e-commerce sales to grow 27.3 percent to USD 1.9 trillion (EUR 1.7 trillion) in 2019.
“That is by far the largest e-commerce market in the world, more than three times the size of the U.S. e-commerce market. China has a 54.7 percent share of the world’s e-commerce sales, while the US has just 16.6 percent,” eMarketer said.
Still, U.S. e-commerce sales will spike 14 percent to USD 587 billion (EUR 516 billion) in 2019, eMarketer said. Food and beverage sales are expected to account for USD 22.6 billion (EUR 20 billion) of overall U.S. e-commerce sales in 2019.
