Researchers have said that ocean indicators off the Oregon coast were a mixed bag for juvenile salmon in 2025, suggesting the U.S. Pacific Northwest will see moderate returns of adult salmon in 2026.
“The start to the upwelling season in 2025 looked favorable for a highly productive year to come,” Jennifer Fisher, a research fisheries biologist at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center’s Newport Research Station, said in a release. “However, the upwelling winds weakened mid-summer, crustaceans (like krill) were scarce, and jellies were abundant. These are all signs of low productivity and poor habitat for many species, including juvenile salmon.”
NOAA Fisheries and Oregon State University researchers conduct an annual analysis of 16 data points that indicate the health of juvenile salmon. Favorable ocean conditions can support a healthy growing environment for the young fish, enabling them to survive and return in force later on. However, challenging conditions can hold salmon growth back and lead to diminishing returns.
Among the ocean indicators researchers monitor are:
- Seawater temperature;
- Salinity;
- Potential fish prey for outmigrating juvenile salmon;
- The presence of tiny crustaceans; and
- Catches of juvenile coho salmon and Chinook salmon.
“These indicators track the ecosystem health, so we can often connect that with salmon survival when they are the most vulnerable: when they first enter the ocean habitat,” Fisher said.
Warmer conditions last winter were an indication of poor food conditions for juvenile salmon in the spring, while the prey fish that were present correlate with lower survival rates for young salmon. Researchers tracked a strong start to the annual upwelling of cold, deep-ocean water that salmon prefer in the spring, but the upwelling petered out in July. Despite that, in June, researchers recorded the greatest abundance of juvenile coho salmon of all years sampled.
Researchers said the mixed bag of results suggested a moderate outlook for salmon, with 2025 indicators ranking roughly in the midway point of their annual data collection. While the assessment is most relevant to adult returns in the Pacific Northwest, they could provide insight into salmon returns along the West Coast, researchers said.
“Right now, the signals are mixed, reminding us how important it is to continually track ocean conditions and try to understand the mechanistic linkages between ocean conditions and juvenile salmon survival,” Fisher said.
Last month, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife released a forecast for Columbia River adult salmon returns, predicting runs of 222,300 spring Chinook salmon – down from 245,379 in 2025 – 274,900 sockeye salmon – up from 167,549 in 2025 – and 41,000 summer Chinook – down slightly from 43,642 in 2025.
Commercial fishers in Oregon landed 1,423,161 Chinook salmon in 2024, the second highest year since the 2,949,964 fish caught in 2015, with an ex-vessel value of USD 6,534,025 (EUR 5,593,707) – the highest since 2016. Regulators also recorded a commercial catch of 419,518 coho salmon with an ex-vessel value of USD 684,717 (EUR 586,166) and a commercial catch of 18,512 sockeye salmon with an ex-vessel value of USD 33,957 (EUR 29,070)
Elsewhere last month, NOAA Fisheries denied a petition to list Oregon Coast (OC) and Southern Oregon/Northern California (SONCC) coastal Chinook under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). While The Native Fish Society, Center for Biological Diversity, and Umpqua Watersheds claim those populations “badly need protections,” the agency’s analysis determined that the fish are not currently being threatened with extinction.
“Based on our review of the best available scientific and commercial information and the findings of the status review report, we determined that the OC and SONCC Chinook salmon are not currently in danger of extinction nor are they likely to become so within the foreseeable future,” NOAA Fisheries stated. “They both have high overall abundance, with numerous, well-distributed spawning populations. Additionally, their high productivity allows them to maintain abundance even in the face of relatively high exploitation rates.”
