Fan Xubing, the CEO of Beijing, China-based seafood consultancy firm Seabridge International, has predicted a drop in Chinese seafood imports for 2024 and highlighted that exporters shipping products to the country have had to settle for lower prices if they want to maintain a foothold in the giant market.
“Personally, I think China's seafood imports in 2024 will be less than those of 2023. I think the economy in China in the first half of 2024 was really bad,” Fan said. “Consumers are looking for cheaper seafood or substitutes. I think this year, most seafood exports to China need to drop their prices to maintain their market, and cheaper seafood will probably be more attractive compared with higher-priced items. For the whole of 2024, it’s a bit too early to make conclusions because we don't know if the economy will recover.”
This has led exporters into a spot where maintaining, or even increasing, their focus on China is a gamble, though an extremely lucrative one if the financial landscape turns back around. For example, export prices for salmon shipped to China have dropped in 2024, but demand has increased in the country, signaling a big payoff if prices course correct.
“We see a 10 percent increase in salmon consumption [in China] this year,” Qiang Weng, the head of purchasing at Beijing-based Sunkfa International Food, told SeafoodSource.
That demand has sparked the attention of salmon-farming firms, including Cermaq and Mowi. In March both companies signed deals with Hema Fresh, a supermarket chain operated by the e-commerce conglomerate Alibaba, for a combined 700,000 salmon per year. Hema has been promoting salmon consumption at its stores across China this summer, with marketing support from the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Nevertheless, exporters of seafood may, as Xubing suggested, have to get used to lower prices to stay in China.
Discounting has become the go-to strategy for vendors of high-end goods, including seafood, with Chinese consumers reluctant to spend on luxury items.
As long as the economy in China remains subdued, seafood exporters may find it hard to realize prices they desire.
“This momentum is likely to face more challenges down the road, as the West increasingly turns to protectionist measures, intensifying the existing geopolitical tension,” Natixis Chief Economist for Asia Alicia Herrero wrote in a market note shared with SeafoodSource.
U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has promised a flat 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports if elected, and other Western markets such as Canada have slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, further depressing China’s economy and potential for a rebound.
Swiss bank UBS has calculated that U.S. tariffs at 60 percent would halve Chinese economic growth in the year that follows, according to a report from UBS economists, with an obvious knock-on impact on consumer sentiment.
