Japan, which took the lead in getting the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal done after newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the original TPP, is wary about Trump’s proposal to rejoin the treaty.
Trump tweeted on 12 April that he would “…only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to [former U.S. President Barack] Obama.” However, Japanese government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said that it would be difficult to renegotiate only parts of the pact.
Australia, another keystone member of the trade deal, also may not be ready to take that step. Sky News Australia reported that Australian Trade Minister Steven Ciobo said he “can’t see any appetite for any kind of wholesale renegotiations of the TPP deal to accommodate the United States.” Sky News reported Australia will benefit under the current deal by paying lower beef import duties than the U.S. in the Japanese market.
Discussions between Japan and Trump were ongoing as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Trump at the Florida Trump golf resort, Mar-a-Lago, on 17 and 18 April. But Abe is in a weak position to negotiate at present due to a growing scandal at home, involving the sale of government property to a school operator with close connections to Abe’s wife. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi suggested that Abe might retire when the current parliamentary session ends, around 20 June, as his low approval ratings may drag the party down in elections.
And considering that Trump’s change of direction was not announced by him officially, but was tweeted by Pat Roberts of Kansas and Ben Sasse of Nebraska, he may have only meant it as an offhand comment to mollify farm-state senators who were complaining at a trade meeting about the effect of China’s sanctions on soybeans, and how it would hurt their states. Trump isn’t in a position to deny the comment now, but he may knowingly demand more than is possible in order to avoid having to seriously consider the proposal.
Indeed, that appeared to be the president’s revised position. In a tweet on 17 April, Trump appeared to back down from his stated interest in rejoining the TPP.
“While Japan and South Korea would like us to go back into TPP, I don’t like the deal for the United States,” Trump tweeted. “Too many contingencies and no way to get out if it doesn’t work. Bilateral deals are far more efficient, profitable and better for OUR workers.”
Through 18 April, Japan was still cautiously moving forward to try to bring the world’s largest economy into the agreement, though a senior Japanese official publicly stated his belief that the affair had been a case of “Trump being Trump.”
"If it’s true, I would welcome it,” Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said. However, Trump "...is a person who could change temperamentally, so he may say something different the next day,” he added.
