Chile’s Salmon Council has released a study outlining a limited set of regulatory and operational adjustments that the country's aquaculture sector and government could implement to generate production increases of between 4 percent and 8 percent.
The study aimed to estimate the economic effects of such growth on exports, employment, and regional gross domestic product (GDP), including both direct impacts and knock-on effects on associated production chains.
The report highlighted that Chilean salmon farming has experienced a period of lower productive dynamism during the last decade compared to its historical trajectory of expansion. The council partly attributed the lower-than-expected growth to a more demanding regulatory framework and operational restrictions that have limited the sector's capacity to grow, despite the fact that favorable conditions continue to exist in terms of international demand and comparative advantages.
In this context, the document identifies four specific measures that would drive efficiency and favor short-term productive growth without requiring significant increases or structural modifications in concessioned areas:
- Adjust the definition of production to avoid double counting of biomass and improve statistical consistency;
- Enable micro-relocations of farming centers to optimize productive and sanitary conditions within existing concessions;
- Apply statistical variation margins in biomass counts, reducing regulatory distortions derived from measurement errors; and
- Exclude certain preventive sanitary and productive deductions from performance indicators, with the aim of aligning incentives toward better sanitary management practices.
In addition to these measures, the report also called for the review of various regulatory processes and their interpretations in certain historical concessions, which contribute to overall sector uncertainty.
Considering the sector’s current annual export value of about USD 6.5 billion (EUR 5.7 billion), export volume of 782,000 metric tons (MT), and total harvest of 1.15 million MT, the study estimated that making those tweaks could result in export value growth between USD 260 million (EUR 228 million) and USD 520 million (EUR 455 million) per year, export volume growth between 31,000 MT and 63,000 MT, and total harvest growth between 46,000 MT and 92,000 MT.
The study used what the council deemed to be conservative assumptions to generate the estimates, including constant productivity; no significant changes in prices and costs; a proportional relationship between production, exports, and added value; and employment output consistent with international evidence and the labor structure of Chilean business.
In terms of employment, the study emphasized that the relationship between productive growth and job creation is not strictly proportional due to the differences in capital intensity between the different production stages.
Nevertheless, Salmon Council Executive President Loreto Seguel said that the changes would likely lead to significant job growth and economic benefit.
“The conversation about growth often seems distant, but behind each additional point, there are people, families, and opportunities for them to move forward. Today, the country faces an unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, so it is especially relevant to promote measures that will boost the economy and create formal employment from the regions [outside of the capital city of Santiago],” Seguel said. “These estimates show that high-impact and easy-to-implement measures could contribute to improving regional employment by up to 8 percent in some areas of the south, strengthening local economies that depend on work and productive development.”
The study also considered differences between salmon farming and processing operations; while aquaculture is less labor-intensive, processing and manufacturing activities require more workers per unit of production.
Based on these assumptions, the report estimated that 4 percent growth would generate between 1,800 and 2,700 new direct and indirect jobs, while the higher end of the estimate at 8 percent would produce between 3,500 and 5,400 additional jobs, with most of this increase concentrated in the Los Lagos region due to its greater participation in national production and its focus on processing.
Regarding value added to the national economy, the report indicates that salmon farming directly and indirectly generates around USD 4.85 billion (EUR 4.24 billion) per year. As such, a 4 percent to 8 percent growth in production would imply an additional increase of between USD 194 million (EUR 170 million) and USD 388 million (EUR 340 million).
Assuming that intermediate purchases increase in the same proportion as production, projected growth would also drive demand for goods and services used by the industry. In the aquaculture stage alone, additional purchases from national suppliers would reach between CLP 159 billion (USD 172 million, EUR 150 million) and CLP 317 billion (USD 342 million, EUR 300 million) per year.
The largest increases in sales would come in feed, followed by aquaculture services, maritime transport, road freight transport, administrative services, wholesale trade, equipment leasing, pharmaceuticals, plastic products, and air transport, according to the study.
“Farmed salmon is today the second most exported product in Chile and a strategic activity for [the regions of] Los Lagos, Aysén, and Magallanes,” Seguel said. “When we talk about competitiveness, we are also talking about formal employment, territorial roots, and opportunities for thousands of families living in the south. That’s why it is important to advance in measures that allow this potential to be deployed in a responsible, sustainable way.”
Chile’s Salmon Council is an association with membership comprising the country’s leading producers, representing about 60 percent of the industry.
