The recently released Bristol Bay Sockeye Market Report – a 44-page collaboration between Andy Wink of Wink Research and the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association (BBRSDA) – predicts the world’s largest sockeye fishery is potentially poised for a bumper year.
A weakened dollar, empty freezers, and high farmed salmon prices are all helping push the value of sockeye salmon from Alaska higher.
“Robust demand for Bristol Bay sockeye products coupled with high farmed salmon prices, improved exchange rates, and improving financial performance on the part of processors, is expected to result in higher ex-vessel prices in 2018,” the report said.
And that is after people up and down the supply chain stuffed their pockets in 2017, when Bristol Bay provided 208 million pounds – 54 percent of the global sockeye supply last year – at an average ex-vessel price of USD 1.02 (EUR 0.87) per pound.
Despite recent fluctuation, farmed salmon prices have remained high after flirting with record peaks this spring, reaching USD 5.81 (EUR 4.98) at the end of April. High farmed prices tend to buoy the price of wild salmon, and vice versa – in 2015, farmed salmon prices at just over USD 4.00 (EUR 3.43) per pound helped drag down Bristol Bay ex-vessel pay-outs to USD 0.50 (EUR 0.43)
Another factor contributing to the low price in 2015 was a strong sockeye run on Canada’s Fraser River that undermined Bristol Bay’s U.S. export and domestic market. The Fraser River run is expected to again be strong this year, but Wink points out that a weakened U.S. dollar – down five percent from last year – should keep Alaska fish competitive on overseas markets.
The weaker dollar also dampens the market for farmed fish from places like Chile and Norway.
Heavy supply in 2018 could undermine prices a bit – Bristol Bay is forecast for another bumper year at 37.6 million fish, 18 percent over the 10-year average, and the Fraser River rebound should provide another eight million fish.
But a move toward more frozen and fresh fish and away from cans has combined with strong demand for wild Alaska salmon that should sponge up a large catch and keep prices afloat.
“There are no major inventory concerns heading into the 2018 season – a significant accomplishment given that the last three seasons have produced historically large harvests of Bristol Bay sockeye,” the report says.
According to the report, headed-and-gutted (H&G) sales out of Bristol Bay last year increased 38 percent from 2016 to 7.7 million pounds, and total H&G revenues were far higher than any year since 2001. Just three processors ran canning lines last season, down from six the previous season, and fishermen chilled a record 73 percent of the catch.
