Fishmeal supplies should be strong and prices attractively positioned throughout this year following the recent strong fishing season for anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) and white anchovy (Anchoa nasus) in north-central Peru, confirmed Gorjan Nikolik, associate director of animal protein with Rabobank International.
The second fishing season ended in January with a significant year-on-year increase in catch after Peru’s Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) authorized a quota of 2 million metric tons (MT), based on the recommendation from the Institute of the Sea (IMARPE), which had determined the existence of an anchovy biomass of approximately 6.9 million MT.
With the first season set at 1.8 million MT, the total quota for 2016 was 3.8 million MT.
“Looking at the short-term dynamics, it seemed that the season that ended in January was a very good season all round. A lot of people had expected a reduction in the catching rate, but that wasn’t the case. Along with a pretty high quota, the catch was 100 percent utilized, which made it about as good as it gets.
“That should give fishmeal producers some hope, and at least from a biological perspective, we would expect the next season to also be good,” said Nikolik.
With El Nino, you never know, but historically, a major event is limited to every five to eight years.
“The short-term should, therefore, see a good supply and it’s quite likely that this will lead to a mid-price range and that will spur along demand. Some aquaculture sectors will use more of it as a result, raising the demand, so within two or three years we might start to see some price increases.
“Currently, we are seeing a short- to medium-term softness, but as we saw with the prices in the peak season of around USD 1,300 (EUR 1,220) to USD 1,400 (EUR 1,310) per MT it is at an acceptable level for most parties.”
In the longer-term, Rabobank expects fishmeal prices to go up, but Nikolik said a lot depends on what happens with alternative proteins and oils.
“There are a number of big fishmeal and fish oil projects coming on stream between now and 2020 and further ahead than that, there are projects related to insect projects,” said Nikolik. “The impact that these innovations have on prices will depend on how quickly they develop in the years ahead. It is all a question of to what degree and how cost-effective it will be.
"If they do come to the market and a number of plants are dedicated to them, they could have a big impact on aquaculture. It is something to watch closely.”
