Strong farmed salmon supplies kept prices in check during the fall, but expect prices to climb significantly as the holiday season kicks into high gear.
“Salmon was good for a while there. It was strong. I think the prices are going to be driven hard, I think the supply is really strong and this is about the time of year when all the big shots come in and purchase their smoked salmon [for the entire year],” said a chef and seafood and meat buyer for a restaurant chain.
“I think volume will go into a slow patch the next month, month and a half, which is definitely going to drive the prices up. On a whole fish we’re still seeing the mid- to upper- USD 5s (EUR 3.65). I think that through New Year’s it can get into the low- to mid-USD 7s (EUR 5.11), but I think it's going to top hard in January, I think it’s going to drop hard and fast. Sharp decline, and back to the low USD 5s, maybe the mid-USD 5s.”
Prices midway through November for fresh, whole farmed fish fob Seattle was ranging between the mid-USD 2s (EUR 1.46) to USD 4 (2.92) per pound for a truckload, depending on the size of the fish. Add a dime per pound for landings out of Los Angeles and another 20 cents on top of it for Northeast landings.
Farmed fresh fillets f.o.b. Miami were from USD 4 to USD 4.75 (EUR 3.47) a pound for D-trim, USD 0.10 (EUR 0.07) a pound less for C-trim. Frozen fillets and portions, C-trim, were USD 3.75 (EUR 2.74) to USD 4.75 a pound for containers. Wild salmon prices were from USD 4.10 (EUR 3) to USD 4.75 a pound for coho, depending whether it was caught by gillnet or troll. Gillnet-caught sockeye were from the low- to mid-USD 4s, while frozen chum fillets and portions were between USD 2.75 (EUR 2.01) and USD 4.
One East Coast-based salmon supplier has had a hard time coming to terms seeing such high prices and passing the cost along to his customers.
“This is a new generation buying product. When you go to the fish department at a retailer and try to find something for less than USD 13 (EUR 9.50), USD 14 (EUR 10.23) a pound, there aren’t too many items,” the supplier said. “But some of these guys have this mentality that if it is over USD 10 (EUR 7.31) it is not going to sell, but that’s just wrong. It’s USD 12.99 (EUR 9.49) and it flies all day. You remember the good old days and you can't believe these prices are what they are but this is what it is, so I’ve started to get more comfortable with it and am feeling less embarrassed having to sell it for USD 7.25 (EUR 5.30). How can you even say it with USD 7 (EUR 5.12) as the beginning number? USD 5 is more like it in my mind, but I’m catching up with reality and everyone is at this level.”
Given the supply constraints, buyers don't have the luxury of shopping around between growing regions, the supplier said. “Chile used to have a differential of at least USD 1 (EUR 0.73) a pound, if not USD 2 (EUR 1.46), possibly USD 3 (EUR 2.19) less than a good Scottish or Norwegian product,” he says. “Now they're within a dime of each other. The alternatives are not there for the buyers to say ‘I’m going to jump around and find a better price.’ They want value now, because everyone is just about the same price.”
