If all goes according to forecast, the 2010 Alaska sockeye salmon season, which begins next month, could become the eighth consecutive Bristol Bay harvest to break records.
The Alaska Department of Fish & Game (ADF&G) is predicting a statewide sockeye run of about 40 million fish. For Bristol Bay, which accounts for two-thirds to three-quarters of the state’s total sockeye catch, the run is expected to be about 30.5 million fish this year, or about 183.1 million pounds, based on an average fish weight of six pounds.
In a fishery where the peak daily harvesting capacity can exceed 2 million fish per day, Bristol Bay processors are prepared to purchase and process 189.5 million pounds, according to a survey of 13 processors conducted by ADF&G. The processing forecasts are based on 25 production days. Last year’s processing capacity is essentially the same as this year’s. The combined tender vessel capacity to handle the run is expected to be down about 6 percent this year, but processors have indicated plans to make a greater use of air transport and divert larger quantities of fish to the fresh market.
According to the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) the average price for H&G frozen sockeye salmon has been on the rise since 2008. In 2009, prices reached a 10-year high of USD 2.22 to 2.39 a pound. Prices for fresh sockeye were also higher at USD 3.57 to 3.67 a pound. Frozen fillets were priced at USD 3.86 to 4.45.
Carryover inventory of H&G sockeye is selling for USD 2.45 to 2.65 for 2- to 4-pounders, USD 2.75 to 3 for 4-6s and USD 3 to 3.25 for 6-9s, f.o.b. Seattle.
This season’s pricing is expected to remain strong thanks to a rising demand for Alaska salmon, a shortage of king salmon from Washington and California, a shortage of Chilean farmed salmon due to disease and an increase in the price of farmed Norwegian salmon.
ASMI also predicts a strong export market for this year’s H&G sockeyes. This is a trend that began in 2008 and is expected to continue despite a decline in exports to the fishery’s primary export market, Japan. In contrast, export sales to China have increased mostly due to cheaper labor in that country.
