With sockeye salmon from Alaska not meeting the 2013 projections, buyers are scrambling to find product and keep their best customers happy. Not all are having success, with some having to tell some customers they don't have any fish for them.
“I do not have the ability to get it. We’re done,” says the head of one distribution company that sells fresh and frozen wild salmon. “If there’s more harvest we’ll get more product. If there isn’t more harvest, we won’t have it. Will some of those customers who were buying wild switch to farmed? Sure. But there is a market that wants wild, Alaska, sustainable and that market is not going to be satisfied with farmed product.”
While some of his customers will switch out and take farmed product instead, the distributor says many others will just forego salmon.
“When we talk about wild salmon, 90 percent of what we’re talking about is sockeye,” he says. “Chums are a more downscale market — they have a home, don’t get me wrong — but it’s not the same home. People are still trying to fill a hole and there isn’t enough product to fill holes.”
Gillnet-caught whole sockeyes from Alaska were selling for between USD 5 (EUR 3.77) and USD 5.75 (EUR 4.34) per pound, f.o.b. Seattle, depending on the size of the fish, according to pricing reports at the start of August. Frozen H&G gillnet-caught sockeyes were fetching USD 4 (EUR 3.02) to USD 4.60 (EUR 3.47). Gillnet-caught whole cohos were in the high-USD 3 (EUR 2.26) to low-USD 4 range, with troll-caught whole cohos in the low- to mid-USD 4 range. Gillnet-caught whole kings were bringing in USD 5.50 (EUR 4.15) to USD 6.75 (EUR 5.09), and troll-caught kings were priced between USD 6 (EUR 4.52) and USD 7.75 (EUR 5.84).
A top sales executive at one Alaska seafood processor says the sockeye shortage was expected; the problem is it is worse than what was predicted. So far, 78 percent, or 26.7 million fish, of the projected sockeye catch of more than 33 million fish, has been caught. That means deals that were cut before the catch came in have to be renegotiated to reflect current market conditions.
“That's the reality every year in this industry. There’s always something that doesn’t come out like you planned, and so you end up having to revise your plans after the fish actually show up,” the executive says. “We meet with people ahead of the season, we say we think there are going to be this many fish. Then when the fish don’t show up you’ve got to call them up and say, ‘Geez, it’s unfortunate, but the fish didn’t show up so we’re going to have to revise our plans a little bit.”
With allocations changing, companies will do what they can to take care of their top customers, but even the best customers won’t get all they want, the executive says. Most of the salmon are being sold in the United States, with Japanese buyers being timid so far. “They’re dipping their toe in, but they’re trying to get a deal right now,” he says.
Regardless of what happens, the distributor says there is going to be a lot of market displacement from the supply shortage. “When you build up a market for a product, then you’re going to have such a lack of supply for it you don’t have a chance — not a chance — of supplying enough of the customers,” the distributor says. “Next year you can expect to see a real hangover from this.”
