Las Vegas was a fitting venue to examine Russia as a global seafood supplier and a potential export market. With much controversy surrounding a nation with the world's eighth largest economy, one might consider doing business there a gamble. Years ago, U.S. seafood ventures with Russia were conducted in an environment akin to the Wild West. And in one expert's opinion, the future business climate there remains unpredictable.
Dr. Alexander J. Motyl, an authority on contemporary politics in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia, addressed seafood industry executives last Friday at the National Fisheries Institute's 63rd Annual Meeting & Leadership Conference at the Venetian Resort-Hotel-Casino. He described today's Russia as shrouded in mystery and intrigue, not unlike the republic that inspired copious cloak-and-dagger Cold War spy novels.
Motyl, a professor of political science and deputy director of the Division of Global Affairs at Rutgers University, says Russia is becoming richer, more powerful and more influential in the world, but is in many ways still stuck in the 19th Century. Despite the bravado of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who Motyl says still runs the nation's affairs, Russia's economy is very weak and isn't capable of sustaining the expansion Putin desires.
"What looks like an efficient and powerful government is actually quite brittle," Motyl said during his "Forecast Russia" address. "Russia could fall apart and suffer instability - it is on the verge of fragmentation."
Motyl provided a fascinating and somewhat troubling account of the once-dominant and re-emerging global superpower. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early '90s, a culture of corruption in Russia has paved the way for what Motyl calls "imperialist behavior." The peculiar Putin, a former KGB agent who by many accounts is the man behind President Dmitry Medvedev's curtain, has fostered a cult of personality and enjoys approval ratings north of 90 percent. But within 10 years, that could all evaporate, Motyl said, due to Putin's inclination to act aggressively, as evidenced by the recent Georgian conflict.
Trade prospects with Russia, therefore, are precarious yet potentially advantageous for exporters. Despite an aging population, its growing middle class can better afford to increase its seafood consumption, Motyl told me after his presentation. Russia, historically a net exporter of seafood, could hold on to more of its salmon, crab and whitefish resources.
Whether Russia becomes a hot seafood market like its European Union neighbors remains another mystery. Proceed with caution, however, warned Motyl. "Throwing all your eggs in the Russian basket could lead to serious trouble," he said.
