The global climate weather pattern El Niño is expected to intensify marine heatwaves and, as a result, sharply reduce the availability of commercially important stocks such as oil sardines and mackerel next year.
Speaking at the National Fish Farmers Day event at the Indian Central Marine Research Institute (CMFRI) on 10 July, CMFRI Director Grinson George said El Niño-related warming is expected to increase from October to December of this year, with its impact likely to reach the northern Indian Ocean by April or May of 2027.
Per The Hindu, George said this warming could reduce overall marine fish production next year, with oil sardines among the species most exposed to the impact.
“Oil sardine stock is abundant this year, but the resource is likely to be affected in 2027 if the projected warming occurs. Small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable species to heatwaves and ocean warming,” he said.
According to George, projections point to rising sea surface temperatures and elevated salinity in April and May of next year. The conditions may increase the risk of coral bleaching while also reducing fish landings, particularly of sardine and mackerel. The decline could result in fish moving to more suitable waters, fewer young fish surviving and entering the stock, and the prevention of some species from reaching preferred market sizes.
Expected damage to coral reefs would reduce the natural abundance of other species, too, such as reef-associated fish like red snapper.
The nation’s aquaculture sector has also been urged to prepare for possible disruptions, such as sudden heavy rainfall after extended periods of high temperature and salinity levels, with the latter effect particularly impacting coastal fish-farming operations.
As part of its support for the seafood sector, George said CMFRI will issue advisories to help fishermen and fish farmers prepare for the expected El Niño impact later this year.
While India prepares for El Niño-related disruptions, the weather pattern has already impacted fisheries around the globe, such as Peru’s anchovy fishery, which has been placed on an indefinite pause due to warming waters that have driven anchovies into deeper waters.
“Today, the scenario is one of high uncertainty, and the warm conditions that were projected have been occurring. The key is the permanent monitoring of oceanographic and environmental conditions for decision-making,” Peru National Fisheries Society President Jessica Luna said in June.
