Early data analyzing U.S. shopping trends during this year’s Thanksgiving holiday weekend could be a harbinger of good news for grocery and food sales in December.
According to new research from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and data firm Prosper Insights & Analytics, 197 million people shopped – for either food or non-food items – during the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day on 28 November through Cyber Monday on 2 December.
That marks the second-highest total in the survey’s history after last year’s record of 200.4 million, and it surpassed NRF’s initial expectations for this year’s Thanksgiving holiday of around 183 million shoppers.
“Thanksgiving weekend retains its prominence among holiday spending events and continues to play a significant role in the holiday season for both consumers and retailers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release. “Even with this year’s shortened shopping period and the multitude of early sales promotions from retailers, this past weekend exceeded expectations in terms of the sheer volume of shoppers.”
Shoppers spent USD 10.8 billion (EUR 10.3 billion) online on 29 November alone, which is also known as Black Friday in the U.S., on top of USD 6.1 billion (EUR 5.8 billion) on Thanksgiving Day itself, according to Adobe Analytics, per NACS Magazine.
Grocery stores and supermarkets were one of the top categories of retailers Americans visited over the Thanksgiving weekend, according to NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Around 40 percent of consumers surveyed visited grocery stores during Thanksgiving weekend this year, down slightly from 42 percent during the 2023 Thanksgiving weekend.
A record 126 million consumers shopped in-store during the Thanksgiving weekend, up from 121.4 million in 2023, according to NRF and Prosper Insights, but online shoppers fell from 134.2 million last year to 124.3 million this year.
Looking ahead, Shay said that the Thanksgiving weekend data and economic indicators such as “tremendous [price] deflation, including food at the grocery store,” bode well for December holiday sales.
210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink agreed, noting that seafood sales in particular always see a boost during the holiday season, when many shoppers are willing to spend extra on food and beverages.
“We’re seeing the more premium and entertaining-focused items do well. This includes salmon but also items like lobster, crab, and oysters,” she said.
Shoppers purchase these types of items as the main entree during a holiday meal, but items like shrimp rings and smoked salmon bites or dips also typically perform well as appetizers, Roerink said.
“Increasingly, retailers promote more than just turkey and ham, and promoting a seafood option can be a great way for consumers to be reminded of seafood as one of the protein options,” Roerink said.
This year, shrimp should be a “clear winner when it comes to maintaining or increasing year-over-year volume,” compared to crab or lobster, according to DNR Sales & Marketing Strategy Advisors President Jason Resner.
Roerink and Resner both agreed that promotions and the strategies behind them will be key to securing year-over-year seafood holiday sales growth.
Because shoppers are drawn to sales promotions, retailers have “a lot of opportunity to direct consumers’ attention to seafood to drive engagement,” Roerink said.
“As the holidays are times of tradition and nostalgia, it’s important for seafood to gain visibility in store, on the app, and in the circular,” she said.
Resner added that promotion strategies should align with efforts made all year long in order to see results, instead of hoping that one-off promotions without any momentum will draw in consumers.
“Some retailers might be caught in a funk when looking at recent promotional retail elasticity results and not getting the sales lift they are used to,” he said.
Since the last six to eight months of economic impact has driven results, reinvesting in deeper seafood promotions for the holiday season will capture more of a total basket shop and pull in lost or diminished customers, according to Resner.
"That will drive higher overall basket sales even if the seafood department sales are flat with increased volume,” he said.
Retailers that allow individual departments to work in silos due to annual weekly budgeted goals compared to seeking holistic benefits may struggle, Resner noted.
The solid Thanksgiving weekend followed a positive sales month in October, as well.
“The economic data calendar was quite busy at the end of October, but while there were contradictions and mixed signals, we continue to believe the U.S. economy remains in a good place,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the November issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review. “The new data doesn’t change our 2024 holiday forecast or retail sales projections for the year,"
Falling energy prices have also likely provided extra money for household spending on retail, according to Kleinhenz.
